Pundit scorecard

“I think he he will pull this off”

Trump wins the 2024 presidency.

“My gut says Trump could end up winning big.”

Trump might win big.

“Joe Biden calling Trump supporters ‘garbage’ is even worse than Hillary calling them ‘a basket of deplorables’ and will be the final nail in Kamala’s election chances.”

Harris loses the election.

“I think he’s going to win the election.”

Trump wins the 2024 election.

“@SadiqKhan will win massively because the Tories have put up no credible opposition to him.”

Khan wins the 2024 London mayoral election by a large margin

“So, nobody will be sent to Rwanda (always a bonkers policy doomed to failure) and Mr Sunak will have to pay a refugee charity the £1k.”

No one will be removed to Rwanda under the scheme before the general election (the subject of his bet with Sunak)

“Rishi Sunak v Liz Truss for final 2.”

Sunak and Truss are the final two in the 2022 Tory leadership race

“Rishi wins.”

Sunak wins the 2022 Tory leadership

“I predict a leadership contest soon which he will lose.”

Johnson faces a leadership challenge soon and loses it

“I predict Rishi Sunak will be Prime Minister within a year.”

Sunak becomes PM by Nov 13, 2022

“If this farce goes to the country, I predict a big win for Boris.”

If a general election is called, Johnson wins big

“I predict resignations, mayhem & her ousting as PM.”

May's deal triggers ministerial resignations and she is ousted as PM

“The hysterical abuse you lot shower on him bears little relation to reality & will win him re-election.”

Trump is re-elected in 2020

“I've just predicted Trump will win for a long time & I think he will.”

Trump wins the 2016 presidential election

“Tonight, I'm saying, I think it's over. ... I just think he's going to lose. ... It'll be tied on Election Day, as always it will. The polls will be tied, and then he'll lose. That's my prediction. We'll see.”

Trump loses the 2024 presidential election

“he is not going to be the democrat's candidate for president in 2024”

Biden will not be the 2024 Democratic nominee.

“Republicans will take control of Congress”

Republicans win the House in the 2022 midterms

“next year they'll begin impeaching Biden and never stop”

The GOP House will impeach Biden starting in 2023.

“Biden will be a crippled duck when he goes up against the 2024 Trump carry Lake ticket”

Biden will face a Trump-Kari Lake ticket in 2024.

“Republicans will take control of Congress”

Republicans win the Senate in the 2022 midterms

“Here's the easiest three predictions in the world. Trump will run in 2024. He will get the Republican nomination. And whatever happens on election night, the next day, he will announce that he won.”

Trump runs in 2024 and wins the Republican nomination

“whatever happens on election night, the next day, he will announce that he won.”

Trump claims victory regardless of the result

“my prediction now last time i didn't even say hillary was going to win when most people did this time i do think biden's going to win by large numbers popular vote and even the electoral vote”

Biden wins the 2020 presidential election

“i think trump losing and then saying well we fought the good fight but the best man won and uh i'm telling my staff to graciously allowed biden to no he's never going to do that”

If Trump loses, he will not concede graciously

“I'll tell ya, do you know who I think is going to be the nominee in 2024? Don Jr.”

Donald Trump Jr. is the 2024 Republican presidential nominee

“Once fascists get power, they don't give it up. You've got President Trump for life.”

If Trump loses in 2020, he won't leave office

“I think he's going to get the nomination”

Mitt Romney wins the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.

“Obama is going to beat him like a runaway sister wife”

Obama beats Romney in the 2012 general election (conditional on Romney being nominated; condition met).

“At some point, the House Republicans will use their slim majority to elect a Republican, not a Democrat, who ends up as Speaker.”

A Republican is elected Speaker in the 118th Congress.

“That ensures that the ultimate amounts will be significantly higher still.”

U.S. Ukraine aid will end up significantly higher than the $47B ($14B approved plus the $33B request) at the time.

“There's no chance Biden will pardon Edward Snowden.”

Biden will not pardon Snowden.

“Edward Snowden is going to be in Russia indefinitely can't leave the borders of that country without being immediately arrested for at least the next three years.”

Snowden stays in Russia for at least 3 more years (to Jan 2025).

“If I had to bet, I'd bet on Bolsonaro making the runoff”

Bolsonaro makes the runoff in Brazil's 2022 presidential election.

“Senate Dem. pick-ups : VA, CO, NM, AK, NC, OR, NH, GA”

Democrats pick up the Georgia Senate seat (Martin beats Chambliss).

“Senate Dem. pick-ups : VA, CO, NM, AK, NC, OR, NH, GA”

Democrats pick up the Alaska Senate seat (Begich beats Stevens).

“House Dem. pick-up : +31”

Democrats net about 31 House seats.

“Electoral votes: Obama - 321-217 (Kerry states + CO, NM, IA, VA, NC, OH)”

Obama carries North Carolina in 2008.

“he is not long for the wear at ABC. That is my prediction.”

Jimmy Kimmel and Disney/ABC part ways before long.

“I predict SCOTUS *will* side with the girls & will uphold girls’ rights under Title IX & the Trump EO.”

SCOTUS sides with the girls under Title IX (girls-only teams allowed).

“I predict SCOTUS *will* side with the girls & will uphold girls’ rights under Title IX & the Trump EO.”

SCOTUS will rule that Title IX permits girls-only sports (and uphold the Trump EO)

“I have zero doubts now that he will be confirmed.”

Pete Hegseth is confirmed as Defense Secretary.

“I don’t think he has more than a week left.”

Biden exits the race by about Jul 10, 2024

“He won’t [resign].”

Biden doesn't resign the presidency

“In my view, it is over for Joe Biden. His presidential campaign came to an end tonight, whether he knows it or not.”

Biden's 2024 campaign is finished; he won't be the nominee

“I'm gonna have to say Donald Trump”

Trump is president in mid-January 2025.

“I predict Tucker goes independent, launches a podcast or digital show, and crushes it”

After his Fox exit, Carlson goes independent with a podcast or digital show and draws a big audience.

“I think Trump really remains the elephant in the room, and he's unmovable by DeSantis or anyone else”

Trump wins the 2024 GOP nomination (no one, DeSantis included, displaces him).

“In fact, if I had to predict, I think I'd say it's going to be Zeldin.”

Lee Zeldin (R) beats Gov. Kathy Hochul in the 2022 New York governor race.

“But at the end of the day, I expect something will pass. Pockets don’t line themselves.”

Congress passes the stalled ~$61 billion Ukraine aid package.

“the Biden administration’s bet was that the counteroffensive would roll back Russian territorial gains, cut the land bridge to Crimea, and force Russia to the negotiating table. That is almost certainly not going to happen.”

Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive fails to cut Russia's land bridge to Crimea or force Russia to negotiate.

“Actually it is Democrats’ fault that Republicans are going to sweep the midterms.”

Republicans win both the House and the Senate in the 2022 midterms.

“this is what we’ll hear from Biden at the State of the Union in 3 weeks: Democrats aren’t the party of endless Covid restrictions; they’re the party leading the country back to normalcy.”

Biden's Mar 1, 2022 State of the Union pitches a return to normal from Covid restrictions.

“by 2024 (if not the 2022 midterms), Kamala Harris will be emphasizing her credentials as a “tough on crime” former prosecutor.”

By 2024 Kamala Harris is campaigning on her record as a tough former prosecutor.

“this is my biggest prediction for 2021: Gavin Newsom, the consummate insider, will be recalled.”

Gavin Newsom is recalled as California governor in 2021.

“However, the other main piece of the ACA, subsidized insurance plans offered on government-run exchanges, will take a body blow in a few months unless Republicans do something totally uncharacteristic — provide help to Americans who need it.”

If the enhanced ACA subsidies are not extended, the exchanges take a body blow in early 2026

“These sudden policy reversals will clearly lead to higher inflation over the next year or so.”

Tariffs and deportations raise inflation over the next year.

“But won’t tariffs create jobs in the steel industry itself? Maybe a few. But the tariffs won’t create many jobs, because steel employs so few workers to begin with — fewer than 90,000 in 2024, out of total U.S. employment of 159 million”

Trump's steel tariffs (raised to 50% on Jun 4, 2025) won't create many steel jobs

“For 2025, I see little or no GDP growth”

US real GDP growth in 2025 of 1.0% or less (the threshold for 'little or no').

“Instead, it seems highly likely that inflation will rise on his watch.”

Inflation rises under Trump.

“whatever Trump does, inflation will probably remain low for much of this year.”

Inflation stays low for much of 2025.

“And if we finally get this pandemic under control, the inflation of 2021 will soon fade from memory.”

2021 inflation will be transitory if the pandemic is controlled.

“For what it’s worth, I don’t think tapping the brakes will be required.”

The Fed won't need to tighten (raise rates) to contain inflation.

“If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.”

Markets may never recover ("a first-pass answer is never").

“Something has to happen and in the end it does have to be a Greek exit. I'd be astonished if they can go more than two years without leaving. I'd be astonished if they could go even one year.”

Greece leaves the euro within a year (by ~May 30, 2013)

“I have felt for a long time that not only is Trump going to lose (because, yes, I have a lot of faith in the goodness of my fellow Americans), but Kamala Harris is going to win, and win big.”

Harris wins the 2024 election, and by a big margin.

“I feel the same way that I felt a few weeks ago that Trump is toast, absolutely.”

Trump loses the 2024 election.

“Harris will also win 6 of the 8 Great Lakes States: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Pennsylvania and New York.”

Harris carries MN, WI, MI, IL, PA and NY.

“In the 2 states that don’t do winner-take-all electors, Maine and Nebraska, Trump will win one elector from Maine and Harris will win one elector from Nebraska.”

Electors split: Trump wins ME-2, Harris wins NE-2.

“So right now the crystal ball brings the Harris and Trump totals to… Harris: 270 Trump: 268”

Harris wins the Electoral College 270-268.

“After the election on Wednesday, as I had for weeks, I tried to assure you that not only are we going to win the Senate seats in Nevada, Arizona and the Georgia runoff on December 6th, I think we are going to hold the House!”

Warnock wins the Dec 6, 2022 Georgia runoff

“We’re going to win the Senate in Nov!”

Democrats keep the Senate in Nov 2022

“Trump can & will be stopped. ... Only a hardcore fighter leading a movement of millions can now bring him down.”

Trump will be defeated (implied window: Nov 2020 election)

“You have to listen this time because he is going to win the 2020 election.”

Trump wins the 2020 presidential election

“I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but as things stand today, I think Trump will win.”

Trump wins the 2016 presidency

“He doesn’t need Florida. He doesn’t need Colorado or Virginia. Just Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And that will put him over the top. This is how it will happen in November.”

Trump carries MI, OH, PA and WI in Nov 2016 (the Rust Belt path)

“Whoever the Democrat is on the ballot come November will win.”

The 2016 Democratic nominee wins in November

“I think Trump's going to win all of them.”

Trump wins PA, MI and WI.

“I think [Hovde] wins that race.”

Hovde (R) wins the Wisconsin Senate race.

“I very rarely make a 100 guarantee but I 100 guarantee the Republicans are going to take the house”

Republicans win the House in 2022.

“I think Adam laxalt is going to win his seat in Nevada over Cortez masto”

Laxalt beats Cortez Masto in Nevada.

“Brian Kemp is going to clean her clock in Georgia”

Kemp beats Abrams decisively in the Georgia governor's race.

“Prediction for Biden's speech: 1. We will go after those who did this, no matter how long it takes (code for: not now); 2. This wasn't the Taliban's fault; 3. This just shows that we had to withdraw, because the only choices were full-scale war or this abject humiliation.”

What Biden's Aug 26, 2021 Kabul-attack speech would say (3 points)

“Biden will restore the funding after the PA provides some sort of rhetorical fig leaf”

Biden will restore Palestinian funding (funding half only)

“Prediction: They're not going to end the payment system”

The PA won't end its prisoner-payment system

“the cases will spike this winter, as they are doing. ... This will begin to wane by January.”

If Biden wins: winter case spike that wanes by January (condition met)

“The deaths will follow, but at not nearly the rate of March/April.”

If Biden wins: winter deaths well below the Mar/Apr 2020 rate

“Biden will then declare a mask mandate, constitutional or no.”

If Biden wins: Biden declares a mask mandate

“Prediction: 1. McConnell "compromises" to include border security funding but no wall funding; 2. Trump claims victory, says he will find a way to build the wall; 3. Democrats claim they've stopped Trump from building the wall.”

The Dec 2018 funding fight ends with no wall money, Trump claiming victory (no shutdown)

“Trump will likely win the second district in Maine. That means he finishes up with 217 electoral votes, slightly better than Romney – he loses North Carolina but wins Ohio and Iowa.”

Clinton wins; Trump finishes with about 217 electoral votes

“Ohio: Trump. ... Iowa: Trump. ... Nevada: Clinton. ... New Hampshire: Clinton. ... Colorado: Clinton. ... Virginia: Clinton.”

2016 state calls he got right (OH, IA, NV, NH, CO, VA)

“North Carolina: Clinton. ... Florida: Clinton. ... Wisconsin: Clinton. ... Michigan: Clinton. ... Pennsylvania: Clinton.”

2016 state calls he got wrong (NC, FL, WI, MI, PA: all called for Clinton)

“For clarity's sake: The court did not touch the Birthright Citizenship question, where it will assuredly rule against the Trump admin.”

The Trump administration loses the birthright citizenship case (EO 14160) on the merits at the Supreme Court

“I'm still predicting a Trump win”

Trump wins the 2024 presidency (he called the race 'basically a coin flip' but kept the Trump pick).

“This race is very, very tight, and there is roughly a 50% chance either candidate wins. I happen to think Trump will win, but it will NOT be a surprise (or fake) if he loses a tight race.”

Trump will win, stated alongside a ~50% probability.

“Kamala Harris will win Pennsylvania and North Carolina, and also lose the election.”

Harris wins Pennsylvania.

“Kamala Harris will win Pennsylvania and North Carolina, and also lose the election.”

Harris wins North Carolina.

“Kamala Harris will win Pennsylvania and North Carolina, and also lose the election.”

Harris loses the election.

“It’s worth stating plainly that Democrats are probably stronger in these swing states than Republicans, but Biden was just that bad for many voters compared to Trump. Harris will almost certainly close the gap.”

Harris polls better against Trump than Biden did (closes Biden's polling gap)

“And yet, I still don’t think anything is going to stop him from becoming the Republican nominee.”

Trump wins the 2024 GOP nomination

“But I suspect Republicans will win their Senate races in Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, and I'd be quite surprised if they lost in Wisconsin. Control of these states is teetering on a razor's edge, and I just don't see a world where Democrats win with a historically unpopular president, real wages falling, and such an overwhelming sense of global and national instability.”

GOP wins the 2022 Senate races in GA, AZ and NV

“and I'd be quite surprised if they lost in Wisconsin.”

GOP holds the 2022 Wisconsin Senate seat

“Republicans will take back the House of Representatives in 2022.”

GOP wins the House in 2022

“Dr. Mehmet Oz will win his high-profile Senate race in Pennsylvania.”

Oz wins the 2022 PA Senate race

“Stephen Breyer will retire from the Supreme Court before Biden leaves office.”

Breyer retires during Biden's term

“Castro, too, could run in Texas but hasn’t — and I suspect won’t — whenever his presidential run ends.”

Julián Castro does not run for the Texas Senate seat (2020) after his presidential run

“Even more so now that RFK Jr will be confirmed by the Senate.”

RFK Jr. is confirmed as HHS secretary.

“one year from today Donald Trump's approval rating will be over 50%”

Trump's approval is above 50% by Jan. 2026.

“if she decides to drag this out through South Carolina or beyond, Trump will still be the nominee”

Trump wins the 2024 GOP nomination over Haley.

“Here's my prediction: Liz Cheney won't even attend the 2024 GOP Convention, unless she's there working for MSNBC.”

Liz Cheney does not attend the 2024 Republican National Convention.

“Prediction: None of the Republicans who voted in the affirmative today will speak at the 2024 GOP Convention.”

None of the 7 GOP senators who voted to convict Trump on Feb 13, 2021 speaks at the 2024 Republican National Convention

“So for you moderates, there will either be Bloomberg, Mayor Pete or Klobuchar, you need to pick one at this point. It's not going to be Biden.”

Biden will not be the Democratic moderate standard-bearer or nominee in 2020

“Elizabeth Warren has a big decision to make tonight... She's not going to be the nominee.”

Warren will not be the 2020 Democratic nominee

“Pete Buttigieg, obviously he's a sharp guy, impressive resume, he's not going to be the nominee of the Democrat Party... He is not going to be the nominee of the Democrat Party.”

Buttigieg will not be the 2020 Democratic nominee

“Mitch McConnell will get to 2018 and still not be able to pass a tax bill.”

No tax bill passes Congress in 2017.

“There's no point pretending that the GOP will pass major legislation on its own. Must either work w/ Dems or do nothing.”

Republicans will not pass major legislation without Democratic votes in the 115th Congress (through Jan 3, 2019)

“why I think [Kamala] is going to win”

Saagar: Harris wins North Carolina (driven by Mark Robinson's weakness in the governor's race).

“I think Trump is gonna win”

Trump wins Arizona.

“Alright y’all here’s my map! Kamala wins all 7 swing states but I don’t have the balls to give her anything crazy like Iowa or Florida.”

Krystal Ball: Harris wins all seven swing states.

“here’s my prediction: Trump wins 271-267”

Saagar Enjeti: Trump wins the Electoral College 271-267.

“I'll say the Catherine Cortez Master holds on there ... Mark Kelly holds on in Arizona ... she holds on there as well”

Krystal (inferred): Democrats hold NV, AZ and NH Senate seats.

“I think Lexa will pull it out by maybe one point ... I think Masters pulls it out by a couple ... I'm just gonna say Brian balduck”

Saagar (inferred): Republicans flip NV (Laxalt), AZ (Masters) and NH (Bolduc).

“Georgia Georgia I think Herschel Walker's gonna win ... ultimately will probably Prevail on the runoff”

Walker wins the Georgia Senate race, via a runoff.

“the house is going Republican ... do you have any guess of the margin I'm gonna say R plus 25 yeah ... I was gonna say the same thing”

GOP House net gain of about R+25 (margin only; control part split into N006)

“I think we both agree Ohio JD Vance is going to win it's not going to be particularly close ... North Carolina is another one that sort of is in that realm ... I think the Republican holds on”

Republicans hold OH (Vance) and NC, neither close

“Wisconsin ... Ron Johnson is going to hang on they're not particularly close”

Johnson holds WI, not close

“I think it's going to be a complete Red Wave I think the Republicans are going to win every single one of these seats ... [Krystal:] the house that one's pretty obvious like I think that's gone for Democrats I um genuine generally agree with your analysis”

Republicans win control of the House in 2022

“[Saagar:] coronavirus pandemic and its link to trump's approval is likely what will doom him today ... if you're not hitting that then you're just going to lose | [Krystal:] blue wall goes back to blue ... and biden wins a big electoral college victory”

Biden wins the 2020 presidency

“[Saagar:] arizona which i'm also giving to biden for the same reason | [Krystal:] i think arizona is far enough along the realignment track for dems to pick it off this year”

Biden wins Arizona

“[Saagar:] i give the formerly known blue wall to biden ... wisconsin ... michigan ... pennsylvania | [Krystal:] blue wall goes back to blue”

Biden wins Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania

“California it's the whole game we both think Sanders is gonna win”

Sanders wins the California primary

“Massachusetts I think Bernie pulls off the win there ... I think he will pull that off tonight yeah I think that's right”

Sanders wins the Massachusetts primary

“Virginia ... yeah that's one of those states where data for progress in particular really saw him shoot up ... yeah I think those are both states were the consolidation of older african-americans and suburban voters around Biden is gonna be enough to put him over the top”

Biden wins Virginia and North Carolina

“(And JD is going to win!)”

Scholten beats Steve King in IA-4, 2018

“Nate’s got this one wrong. @Ojeda4congress is going to win.”

Ojeda wins WV-3 in 2018

“I got news though, @JahanaHayes is going to win anyway.”

Jahana Hayes wins CT-5 (nomination and seat) in 2018

“(Once you both win next week, do let me know how you're working out the order.)”

Spanberger (VA) and Sherrill (NJ) both win their Nov 4, 2025 governor races.

“If Trump then gets his budget bill through Congress—which I think likely—and concludes a nuclear deal with Iran—which I think quite possible—Trump will be riding high.”

Budget bill passes (likely); Iran deal (possible).

“Indeed I predict one or more will go down.”

At least one of Trump's pending nominees will fail.

“Prediction: Mitch McConnell will lead the opposition to confirming RFK Jr. And the opposition will succeed.”

McConnell leads opposition to RFK Jr.; the nomination fails.

“Yes, the election’s on a knife’s edge. But voters are going to look at the dark future on offer from Donald Trump, and the hopeful one on offer from Kamala Harris, and do the right thing. We’re going to win the election.”

Harris wins the 2024 presidential election.

“SCOTUS will reverse Colorado and leave Trump on the ballot.”

SCOTUS reverses Colorado; Trump stays on the ballot

“CJ Roberts' opinion will ignore every major trend in jurisprudence of the last 50 years in favor of a 1950s-1960s/Frankfurter-Alex Bickel type opinion lauding the virtues of judicial restraint.”

A Roberts opinion grounded in judicial restraint

“DeSantis gets out before Iowa”

DeSantis drops out before the Iowa caucuses

“endorses Trump.”

DeSantis endorses Trump

“Prediction (FWIW!): Motivated by news about the DOJ investigation and worries about DeSantis et al, but trumpeting what could be three or four primary defeats earlier in August of House Republicans who voted to impeach, Trump announces his 2024 candidacy around August 20, 2022.”

Trump will announce his 2024 run around Aug 20, 2022

“Prediction: Whether he ends up writing for five or four or three justices, Justice Alito will drop from his final opinion in Dobbs his citation of the 17th century British jurist, Sir Matthew Hale.”

Alito will drop the Hale citation from the final Dobbs opinion

“Random, not very well-informed prediction: The Court will modify and limit Roe this term, allowing more restrictions on abortion post-viability or even post first-trimester, but there will be only two votes simply to overturn the 50-year old precedent.”

The Court will limit Roe but not overturn it; only two votes to overturn

“my one-time only, totally worthless prediction: Alito doesn’t write Brnovich, instead we get a narrow, Roberts or Roberts-orchestrated decision.”

Alito won't write Brnovich; the opinion will be narrow, by or orchestrated by Roberts

“Prediction: The president will, as he would see it, bestow a Christmas gift on his humble if often ungrateful subjects, by (having made clear his objections to this inferior product of the swamp) signing the COVID relief and omnibus spending legislation this afternoon.”

Trump will sign the COVID relief/omnibus bill on the afternoon of Dec 25, 2020

“Prediction: The government will be open by the end of the week, as Mitch McConnell "bows to the wishes of his colleagues and to political reality" and cuts a deal with Pelosi-- and quietly takes great delight in throwing Trump under the bus.”

The shutdown will end by the end of the week of Jan 9, 2019

“Prediction: Trump will meet with Kim Jong-un before he meets with Robert Mueller.”

Trump will meet Kim before he sits down with Mueller

“They are calling for Biden to STEP DOWN So Kamala can be the first female president for a couple months I bet it happens and she pardons Hunter”

Biden resigns early so Harris becomes president before Jan 20, 2025 (and she pardons Hunter Biden).

“My prediction is a tie followed by Trump winning a contingent election in the house”

The 2024 Electoral College ends in a 269-269 tie and the House picks Trump.

“Biden will drop out soon”

Biden quits the 2024 race soon, before the primaries, so party leaders can appoint a nominee without a primary.

“Joe Biden will be impeached for obstructing the investigation into hunter”

The House impeaches Biden (implied window: his term, ending Jan 20, 2025).

“Republicans will lose in Georgia because they don't actually care about the will of their voters”

Republicans lose the Jan 5, 2021 Georgia Senate runoffs.

“Take note America This is why Trump will win in 2020”

Trump wins the 2020 election.

“Here's my prediction DNC Cheats, steals it from Bernie with underhanded tactics, Kamala Harris wins dem nomination.”

Kamala Harris wins the 2020 Democratic nomination.

“I'm convinced they're going to get this guy.”

Police will catch the UnitedHealthcare CEO's killer.

“I doubt he will be the nominee.”

Biden will not be the 2024 Democratic nominee.

“You put those two together, I predict that balloon will be popped in the next 48 hours.”

The Chinese spy balloon will be shot down within 48 hours.

“I think Shapiro is going to beat Mastriano handily.”

Shapiro beats Mastriano by a wide margin for PA governor.

“There's no way that Alba will be convicted nor should be convicted.”

Bodega clerk Jose Alba will not be convicted of murder.

“If you frame this as -- there will be -- I'm sure with President-elect Biden and Speaker Pelosi being able to get together with the Senate, of course, whether it's McConnell or Schumer, there will be another stimulus.”

Congress will pass another stimulus package.

“My prediction for @TIME 2019 Person of the Year - The Diplomat”

TIME names 'The Diplomat' (the impeachment-inquiry diplomats) 2019 Person of the Year.

“My prediction about Montco DA race - whoever wins, Castor or Steele - Will Be prosecuting #BillCosby come January 2016.”

The next Montgomery County DA is prosecuting Bill Cosby by January 2016.

“My prediction: Spanberger by double digits.”

Spanberger wins the Nov 4, 2025 Virginia governor race by 10 points or more.

“I’m ready to issue my Official Pundit Prediction. I think it’s Marco.”

Trump picks Marco Rubio as his 2024 running mate (the post says 'Bookmark for July').

“...even though the Texas Democrats are coming back, and they're going to get rolled.”

Texas Republicans will pass the new map over Democrats.

“Amna Nawaz: Will he get confirmed? Jonathan Capehart: Oh, yes.”

Hegseth will be confirmed as defense secretary.

“I think McCarthy will eke it out.”

McCarthy will narrowly win the speakership fight.

“So, stop the hand-wringing, let him do his job, and let him decide whether he's going to run for reelection, which I think he will.”

Biden will run for reelection.

“And I also think that Congress will remain on board and will pass these budget requests from the president.”

Congress will pass Biden's Ukraine aid request.

“Yes, I think it will hold.”

The bipartisan infrastructure deal will hold.

“A war with Iran would amount to a profound betrayal of his supporters. It would end his presidency.”

A war with Iran ends Trump's presidency.

“a strike on the Iranian nuclear sites will almost certainly result in thousands of American deaths at bases throughout the Middle East”

A US strike on Iran's nuclear sites leads to thousands of American deaths at Middle East bases.

“Donald Trump's going to win.”

Trump wins the 2024 presidency.

“Donald Trump is going to win.”

Trump wins the 2024 presidential election (repeat of TC001).

“He’s out now, just in time to see Trump elected again.”

Trump is elected in 2024.

“Biden is done. Bet on it. ... They have to remove him, and they will.”

Biden is pushed out as the Democratic nominee.

“He'll win the election if he's not killed first.”

Trump wins the 2024 presidential election.

“I don’t think it will be very long until you call North Carolina for Donald Trump. I think Georgia will immediately there follow-, will follow thereafter.”

NC and GA go to Trump.

“donald trump it will be next president, kamala harris will lose”

Trump will win the 2024 presidential election.

“The president will be acquitted”

Trump is acquitted in the first impeachment trial.

“it's going to end up with the re-election of Donald Trump.”

Trump is re-elected in 2020

“I do believe North Dakota will flip.”

Republicans flip the North Dakota Senate seat in 2018

“I know it's close but I think Brian Kemp is going to win that race, he's for governor down there.”

Kemp wins the 2018 Georgia governor race

“We are not going to have a Supreme Court that will overturn Roe versus Wade. There will be no more Antonin Scalias and Samuel Alitos added to this court.”

After Obama's 2012 win, the Court will not overturn Roe and no more Scalia/Alito-style justices will be added.

“We`re not going to repeal health reform.”

The ACA will not be repealed.

“Yeah, I feel she's gonna win.”

Kamala Harris wins the 2024 presidential election.

“I think the red wave that's coming is going to be like the elevator doors opening up in the Shining”

A big Republican wave in the 2022 midterms.

“And they're going to bring Harris. Michelle Obama and Harris. Harris comes back as the vice, Michelle Obama's the president.”

Democrats run Michelle Obama for president in 2024 with Kamala Harris as her running mate.

“If Democrats all turn out to vote, none it will matter. We will win. They will lose and we can begin to fix our democracy”

Democrats win the 2020 presidential election.

“Here is a quasi-educated prediction: Ted Cruz finishes 1st or 2nd in Iowa.”

Ted Cruz finishes first or second in the Feb 1, 2016 Iowa Republican caucuses.

“Amna Nawaz: David, do you agree? David Brooks: I agree.”

Agrees Hegseth will be confirmed.

“And so I imagine that she will drop out.”

Nikki Haley will drop out after Super Tuesday.

“He will go out, campaign, he will win, he will look like a guy who beat somebody, nominee.”

Biden will beat Dean Phillips in the Democratic primaries.

“I'm pretty sure he's going to run.”

Biden will run for reelection in 2024.

“And I'm pretty sure he's going to be the nominee.”

Biden will be the 2024 Democratic nominee.

“I still think Donald Trump is going to get the nomination, for this reason.”

Trump will win the 2024 Republican nomination.

“That's why I'm sure that will get struck down.”

Missouri's Second Amendment Preservation Act will be struck down.

“it's not going to jail Trump it's going to get him reelected”

Trump is reelected rather than jailed.

“They have been signaling that a 9/11 style attack is coming the second week of December. Save this tweet. It will age well.”

A '9/11-style attack' happens in the second week of December 2025.

“When he runs again in 2020, he will win by larger margins.”

Trump wins the 2020 election by a larger margin than in 2016.

“Prediction: The Billionaire Tax will die and will not get to the ballot.”

California's billionaire tax initiative fails to qualify for the 2026 ballot.

“After a trip following Trump I was convinced that he will win the nomination for sure and likely the presidency.”

Trump wins the 2016 Republican nomination

“This is why he won in '16, and if this continues, why he will win again”

Trump wins again, conditional on "if this continues".

“talk to me about the senate right now. i'm saying 53, maybe 54.”

Republicans will win 53 (maybe 54) Senate seats.

“Joe Biden will win...Delaware. #TheFive”

Biden wins Delaware.

“I think it's -- it looks like -- we don't know definitively -- that Biden would pull ahead, perhaps by a margin along the Michigan level margin, 100,000 votes or plus”

Biden pulls ahead in PA by ~100k+.

“they know they are not going to win a majority of the vote.”

Trump will not win the 2020 popular vote majority.

“I don't think Biden will win Texas (though who knows!)”

Biden does not win Texas.

“Mark my words: before this is all over, they will try to prosecute Hillary Clinton”

The Trump administration will try to prosecute Hillary Clinton.

“Biden is going to win millions more votes than Trump. Millions.”

Biden wins the popular vote by millions.

“Charlie Cook is saying the Democrats will indeed win control of the United States Senate.”

Host relays Charlie Cook forecast.

“He will win if he gets the help he needs in final weeks.”

Espy wins MS Senate, conditional on help.

“Trump-ism is going to lose tomorrow. Brooklyn is going to win tomorrow. The real America is going to win tomorrow.”

Trump will lose the 2016 election (the same segment also says 'The Election of a first woman president').

“He won re-election six years ago with 66 percent of the vote. He should get at least that much this time.”

Schumer gets at least 66% in 2016.

“And so we stand tonight on the verge of an historic turn in our politics. The Election of a first woman president ... We are not going back. Trump-ism is going to lose tomorrow.”

Hillary Clinton wins the 2016 presidential election

“Instead, Harris will lose by about 1.6 once all votes are counted.”

Harris loses the final popular vote by about 1.6 points.

“Trump will get 3 to 4 million more votes than he did in 2020, while Harris will get about 6 million fewer votes than Biden.”

Final 2024 count: Trump up 3-4M on 2020; Harris about 6M below Biden.