Ben Shapiro is right on 44% of graded predictions on The Country's pundit scorecard: 4 correct and 5 wrong on 9 graded calls, No. 8 of 13 ranked pundits. Listed in the Right column.
Watch at 00:22:16“I think Trump's going to win all of them.”
Trump wins PA, MI and WI.
What happened: Trump carried all three Rust Belt states: MI Trump 2,816,636 to Harris 2,736,533 (15 EV); PA 3,543,308 to 3,423,042 (19 EV); WI 1,697,626 to 1,668,229 (10 EV). FEC, Official 2024 Presidential General Election Results (source: state elections offices).
Outcome evidenceWatch at 00:23:24“I think [Hovde] wins that race.”
Hovde (R) wins the Wisconsin Senate race.
What happened: Baldwin (D) won.
Outcome evidenceSource“I very rarely make a 100 guarantee but I 100 guarantee the Republicans are going to take the house”
Republicans win the House in 2022.
Source“I think Adam laxalt is going to win his seat in Nevada over Cortez masto”
Laxalt beats Cortez Masto in Nevada.
Source“Brian Kemp is going to clean her clock in Georgia”
Kemp beats Abrams decisively in the Georgia governor's race.
What happened: Kemp 2,111,572 (53.41%) vs. Abrams 1,813,673 (45.88%), official results; Kemp by 7.5 pts.
Outcome evidenceNot graded: obvious call.
Source“Prediction for Biden's speech: 1. We will go after those who did this, no matter how long it takes (code for: not now); 2. This wasn't the Taliban's fault; 3. This just shows that we had to withdraw, because the only choices were full-scale war or this abject humiliation.”
What Biden's Aug 26, 2021 Kabul-attack speech would say (3 points)
What happened: Biden (5:24 PM EDT): 'We will hunt you down and make you pay'; 'there is no evidence thus far ... that there has been collusion between the Taliban and ISIS'; 'I'd have only one alternative: Pour thousands of more troops back into Afghanistan'.
Outcome evidenceSource“Biden will restore the funding after the PA provides some sort of rhetorical fig leaf”
Biden will restore Palestinian funding (funding half only)
What happened: Apr 7, 2021: State Dept: 'we plan to restart U.S. economic, development, and humanitarian assistance for the Palestinian people' ($235M).
Outcome evidenceSource“Prediction: They're not going to end the payment system”
The PA won't end its prisoner-payment system
What happened: Disputed, not cleanly resolved. On Feb 10, 2025, Abbas issued a decree law revoking the articles on paying allowances to families of prisoners, martyrs and the wounded, and moved the program to the Palestinian National Foundation for Economic Empowerment (WAFA, the official PA news agency; Al Jazeera, Feb 10, 2025). A later State Department finding, reported by JNS (Apr 22, 2026), said the PA shifted to the new system to hide its payments and paid more than $200 million to prisoners and their families in 2025. Row remains Not graded.
Outcome evidenceDisputed outcome; no open source settles it yet.
Source“the cases will spike this winter, as they are doing. ... This will begin to wane by January.”
If Biden wins: winter case spike that wanes by January (condition met)
What happened: Cases spiked and peaked Jan 11, 2021, then fell (NYT covid-19-data rolling averages, cases_avg).
Outcome evidenceSource“The deaths will follow, but at not nearly the rate of March/April.”
If Biden wins: winter deaths well below the Mar/Apr 2020 rate
What happened: Deaths 7-day average peaked at 3,342 on Jan 26, 2021, vs 2,222 on Apr 17, 2020: higher, not lower (NYT covid-19-data, deaths_avg).
Outcome evidenceSource“Biden will then declare a mask mandate, constitutional or no.”
If Biden wins: Biden declares a mask mandate
What happened: EO 13991 (Jan 20, 2021) required masks on federal property only, which is not a mandate.
Outcome evidenceSource“Prediction: 1. McConnell "compromises" to include border security funding but no wall funding; 2. Trump claims victory, says he will find a way to build the wall; 3. Democrats claim they've stopped Trump from building the wall.”
The Dec 2018 funding fight ends with no wall money, Trump claiming victory (no shutdown)
What happened: Trump refused to sign. A lapse in appropriations 'began on December 22, 2018, and ended on January 25, 2019' (OPM).
Outcome evidenceSource“Trump will likely win the second district in Maine. That means he finishes up with 217 electoral votes, slightly better than Romney – he loses North Carolina but wins Ohio and Iowa.”
Clinton wins; Trump finishes with about 217 electoral votes
What happened: Trump won 304-227.
Outcome evidenceSource“Ohio: Trump. ... Iowa: Trump. ... Nevada: Clinton. ... New Hampshire: Clinton. ... Colorado: Clinton. ... Virginia: Clinton.”
2016 state calls he got right (OH, IA, NV, NH, CO, VA)
What happened: All 6 went as called (FEC Federal Elections 2016).
Outcome evidenceNot graded: obvious call.
Source“North Carolina: Clinton. ... Florida: Clinton. ... Wisconsin: Clinton. ... Michigan: Clinton. ... Pennsylvania: Clinton.”
2016 state calls he got wrong (NC, FL, WI, MI, PA: all called for Clinton)
What happened: Trump won all 5 (FEC Federal Elections 2016).
Outcome evidenceNot graded: obvious call.
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