Bill Kristol is right on 23% of graded predictions on The Country's pundit scorecard: 3 correct and 10 wrong on 13 graded calls, No. 12 of 13 ranked pundits. Listed in the Left column.
Source“(Once you both win next week, do let me know how you're working out the order.)”
Spanberger (VA) and Sherrill (NJ) both win their Nov 4, 2025 governor races.
What happened: Both won: Spanberger (VA) and Sherrill (NJ), Nov 4, 2025.
Outcome evidenceNot graded: obvious call.
Source“If Trump then gets his budget bill through Congress—which I think likely—and concludes a nuclear deal with Iran—which I think quite possible—Trump will be riding high.”
Budget bill passes (likely); Iran deal (possible).
What happened: One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed July 4, 2025; no Iran nuclear deal.
Outcome evidenceStated as a probability ("likely").
Source“Indeed I predict one or more will go down.”
At least one of Trump's pending nominees will fail.
What happened: After this post, the White House withdrew Dave Weldon's CDC director nomination on Mar 13, 2025 because he lacked the Senate votes.
Outcome evidenceSource“Prediction: Mitch McConnell will lead the opposition to confirming RFK Jr. And the opposition will succeed.”
McConnell leads opposition to RFK Jr.; the nomination fails.
What happened: The Senate confirmed RFK Jr. 52-48 on Feb 13, 2025 (McConnell was the lone Republican no).
Outcome evidenceSource“Yes, the election’s on a knife’s edge. But voters are going to look at the dark future on offer from Donald Trump, and the hopeful one on offer from Kamala Harris, and do the right thing. We’re going to win the election.”
Harris wins the 2024 presidential election.
What happened: Trump won, 312-226 electoral votes (certified).
Outcome evidenceSource“SCOTUS will reverse Colorado and leave Trump on the ballot.”
SCOTUS reverses Colorado; Trump stays on the ballot
What happened: Trump v. Anderson (Mar 4, 2024): reversed 9-0.
Outcome evidenceNot graded: obvious call.
Source“CJ Roberts' opinion will ignore every major trend in jurisprudence of the last 50 years in favor of a 1950s-1960s/Frankfurter-Alex Bickel type opinion lauding the virtues of judicial restraint.”
A Roberts opinion grounded in judicial restraint
What happened: Per curiam (not signed by Roberts), resting on Congress's Section 5 enforcement power, not judicial restraint.
Outcome evidenceSource“DeSantis gets out before Iowa”
DeSantis drops out before the Iowa caucuses
What happened: He stayed in through Iowa (Jan 15, 2024) and dropped out Jan 21, 2024.
Outcome evidenceSource“endorses Trump.”
DeSantis endorses Trump
What happened: He endorsed Trump when he dropped out, Jan 21, 2024.
Outcome evidenceSource“Prediction (FWIW!): Motivated by news about the DOJ investigation and worries about DeSantis et al, but trumpeting what could be three or four primary defeats earlier in August of House Republicans who voted to impeach, Trump announces his 2024 candidacy around August 20, 2022.”
Trump will announce his 2024 run around Aug 20, 2022
What happened: He filed his Statement of Candidacy on Nov 15, 2022, almost three months later.
Outcome evidenceSource“Prediction: Whether he ends up writing for five or four or three justices, Justice Alito will drop from his final opinion in Dobbs his citation of the 17th century British jurist, Sir Matthew Hale.”
Alito will drop the Hale citation from the final Dobbs opinion
What happened: The final opinion (June 24, 2022) still cites Hale, e.g. 'Sir Matthew Hale likewise described abortion of a quick...'. The PDF has 17 mentions of 'Hale'.
Outcome evidenceSource“Random, not very well-informed prediction: The Court will modify and limit Roe this term, allowing more restrictions on abortion post-viability or even post first-trimester, but there will be only two votes simply to overturn the 50-year old precedent.”
The Court will limit Roe but not overturn it; only two votes to overturn
What happened: Dobbs: 'We hold that Roe and Casey must be overruled.' Five justices joined (Alito, Thomas, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barrett).
Outcome evidenceSource“my one-time only, totally worthless prediction: Alito doesn’t write Brnovich, instead we get a narrow, Roberts or Roberts-orchestrated decision.”
Alito won't write Brnovich; the opinion will be narrow, by or orchestrated by Roberts
What happened: Brnovich v. DNC (July 1, 2021): 'ALITO, J., delivered the opinion of the Court.'
Outcome evidenceSource“Prediction: The president will, as he would see it, bestow a Christmas gift on his humble if often ungrateful subjects, by (having made clear his objections to this inferior product of the swamp) signing the COVID relief and omnibus spending legislation this afternoon.”
Trump will sign the COVID relief/omnibus bill on the afternoon of Dec 25, 2020
What happened: H.R. 133 (Pub. L. 116-260) was approved Dec 27, 2020, not Dec 25.
Outcome evidenceSource“Prediction: The government will be open by the end of the week, as Mitch McConnell "bows to the wishes of his colleagues and to political reality" and cuts a deal with Pelosi-- and quietly takes great delight in throwing Trump under the bus.”
The shutdown will end by the end of the week of Jan 9, 2019
What happened: The shutdown ended with H.J. Res. 28 (Pub. L. 116-5), approved Jan 25, 2019.
Outcome evidenceSource“Prediction: Trump will meet with Kim Jong-un before he meets with Robert Mueller.”
Trump will meet Kim before he sits down with Mueller
What happened: The Singapore summit was June 12, 2018. Trump never sat for a Mueller interview and gave written answers only (Mueller Report, Vol. II).
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