Bill Maher is right on 71% of graded predictions on The Country's pundit scorecard: 5 correct and 2 wrong on 7 graded calls, No. 2 of 13 ranked pundits. Listed in the Left column.
Source“Tonight, I'm saying, I think it's over. ... I just think he's going to lose. ... It'll be tied on Election Day, as always it will. The polls will be tied, and then he'll lose. That's my prediction. We'll see.”
Trump loses the 2024 presidential election
What happened: Trump won 312 electoral votes to Harris's 226.
Outcome evidenceWatch at 00:00:06“he is not going to be the democrat's candidate for president in 2024”
Biden will not be the 2024 Democratic nominee.
What happened: Biden withdrew on July 21, 2024.
Outcome evidenceSource“Republicans will take control of Congress”
Republicans win the House in the 2022 midterms
Source“next year they'll begin impeaching Biden and never stop”
The GOP House will impeach Biden starting in 2023.
What happened: The House opened an impeachment inquiry in Sept 2023 but never voted to impeach Biden; he isn't on the House's impeachment list.
Outcome evidenceAn inquiry and an impeachment vote are two readings that grade differently.
Source“Biden will be a crippled duck when he goes up against the 2024 Trump carry Lake ticket”
Biden will face a Trump-Kari Lake ticket in 2024.
What happened: Biden withdrew on July 21, 2024; the Trump ticket ran with JD Vance.
Outcome evidenceA joke, not a serious call.
Source“Republicans will take control of Congress”
Republicans win the Senate in the 2022 midterms
What happened: Democrats kept the Senate, 51-49.
Outcome evidence'Congress' is ambiguous on the Senate.
Source“Here's the easiest three predictions in the world. Trump will run in 2024. He will get the Republican nomination. And whatever happens on election night, the next day, he will announce that he won.”
Trump runs in 2024 and wins the Republican nomination
What happened: Trump filed for 2024 (FEC candidate P80001571, 2024 cycle) and was the Republican nominee; he won 312 electoral votes.
Outcome evidenceSource“whatever happens on election night, the next day, he will announce that he won.”
Trump claims victory regardless of the result
What happened: Trump won the 2024 election, so the 'whatever happens' case (claiming a win after losing) was never tested.
Outcome evidenceTrivially true as worded; the real claim never had its condition met.
Source“my prediction now last time i didn't even say hillary was going to win when most people did this time i do think biden's going to win by large numbers popular vote and even the electoral vote”
Biden wins the 2020 presidential election
What happened: Biden won. Context only, not graded: popular vote Biden 81,283,501 (51.31%) to Trump 74,223,975 (46.85%), a 4.46-point margin; Electoral College 306 to 232 (FEC, Federal Elections 2020, pp. with national totals).
Outcome evidenceNot graded: obvious call.
Source“i think trump losing and then saying well we fought the good fight but the best man won and uh i'm telling my staff to graciously allowed biden to no he's never going to do that”
If Trump loses, he will not concede graciously
What happened: Trump lost (FEC 2020) and never conceded; AP reported he 'made clear he would not concede' and refused to congratulate the winner.
Outcome evidenceSource“I'll tell ya, do you know who I think is going to be the nominee in 2024? Don Jr.”
Donald Trump Jr. is the 2024 Republican presidential nominee
What happened: Donald Trump (not Trump Jr.) was the 2024 Republican nominee and won (FEC official 2024 results list Donald J. Trump (R)).
Outcome evidenceA warning that something is possible, not a committed forecast.
Source“Once fascists get power, they don't give it up. You've got President Trump for life.”
If Trump loses in 2020, he won't leave office
What happened: Condition met: Trump lost (Biden 306 EV to 232). Biden was inaugurated Jan 20, 2021, and Trump left office at the end of his term.
Outcome evidenceSource“I think he's going to get the nomination”
Mitt Romney wins the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.
What happened: Romney was nominated at the 2012 RNC in Tampa on Aug 28, 2012 (National Archives 2012 Electoral College page lists Romney [R] as main opponent).
Outcome evidenceSource“Obama is going to beat him like a runaway sister wife”
Obama beats Romney in the 2012 general election (conditional on Romney being nominated; condition met).
What happened: Obama won the 2012 election, 332-206 electoral votes (National Archives, 2012 Electoral College results).
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