Glenn Greenwald is right on 67% of graded predictions on The Country's pundit scorecard: 4 correct and 2 wrong on 6 graded calls, No. 3 of 13 ranked pundits. Listed in the Center column.
Source“At some point, the House Republicans will use their slim majority to elect a Republican, not a Democrat, who ends up as Speaker.”
A Republican is elected Speaker in the 118th Congress.
What happened: Kevin McCarthy elected Speaker on the 15th ballot, Jan 7, 2023.
Outcome evidenceNearly certain when made.
Source“That ensures that the ultimate amounts will be significantly higher still.”
U.S. Ukraine aid will end up significantly higher than the $47B ($14B approved plus the $33B request) at the time.
What happened: Congress approved about $175 billion for Ukraine by spring 2024.
Outcome evidenceSource“There's no chance Biden will pardon Edward Snowden.”
Biden will not pardon Snowden.
What happened: Biden left office Jan 20, 2025; Snowden is not on the DOJ Pardon Attorney lists of Biden pardons or commutations (checked Oct 21, 2026).
Outcome evidenceNearly certain when made.
Source“Edward Snowden is going to be in Russia indefinitely can't leave the borders of that country without being immediately arrested for at least the next three years.”
Snowden stays in Russia for at least 3 more years (to Jan 2025).
What happened: Snowden remained in Russia past the end of the window (Jan 2025): granted Russian citizenship Sept 26, 2022 (BBC); still living in Russia in Feb 2025 (dpa fact check, Feb 20, 2025) and May 2025 (RFE/RL, May 30, 2025).
Outcome evidenceSource“If I had to bet, I'd bet on Bolsonaro making the runoff”
Bolsonaro makes the runoff in Brazil's 2022 presidential election.
What happened: First round Oct 2, 2022: Lula 48.4%, Bolsonaro 43.2%; the two went to the Oct 30 runoff (Reuters).
Outcome evidenceSource“Senate Dem. pick-ups : VA, CO, NM, AK, NC, OR, NH, GA”
Democrats pick up the Georgia Senate seat (Martin beats Chambliss).
What happened: Chambliss (R) won the Dec 2, 2008 runoff 57.44% to 42.56% (FEC official results).
Outcome evidenceSource“Senate Dem. pick-ups : VA, CO, NM, AK, NC, OR, NH, GA”
Democrats pick up the Alaska Senate seat (Begich beats Stevens).
What happened: Begich (D) 47.77% to Stevens (R, incumbent) 46.52% (Alaska Division of Elections official results; FEC).
Outcome evidenceNot graded: obvious call.
Source“House Dem. pick-up : +31”
Democrats net about 31 House seats.
What happened: House Democrats went from 233 seats (110th Congress) to 257 (111th Congress), a gain of 24 including intervening changes; well short of +31 (Office of the House Historian).
Outcome evidenceSource“Electoral votes: Obama - 321-217 (Kerry states + CO, NM, IA, VA, NC, OH)”
Obama carries North Carolina in 2008.
What happened: Obama won North Carolina 2,142,651 (49.70%) to 2,128,474 (49.38%) (FEC official results).
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