Isaac Saul is right on 43% of graded predictions on The Country's pundit scorecard: 3 correct and 4 wrong on 7 graded calls, No. 9 of 13 ranked pundits. Listed in the Center column.
The Trump administration loses the birthright citizenship case (EO 14160) on the merits at the Supreme Court
What happened: Trump v. Barbara, No. 25-365, decided Jun 30, 2026, 6-3 on the merits (Roberts): children born in the US to parents unlawfully or temporarily present are citizens at birth under the Citizenship Clause; EO 14160 invalid.
“This race is very, very tight, and there is roughly a 50% chance either candidate wins. I happen to think Trump will win, but it will NOT be a surprise (or fake) if he loses a tight race.”
“It’s worth stating plainly that Democrats are probably stronger in these swing states than Republicans, but Biden was just that bad for many voters compared to Trump. Harris will almost certainly close the gap.”
Harris polls better against Trump than Biden did (closes Biden's polling gap)
What happened: Data series: RCP national average. Baseline: Trump vs. Biden 7/7-7/21/2024, Trump +3.1 (47.9-44.8). Outcome: Harris vs. Trump 7/31-8/21/2024, Harris +1.5 (48.4-46.9), a 4.6-point swing; by Jul 26 RCP already had Trump's lead cut to 1.4 (RealClearPolling, 'Will Harris' Honeymoon Polling Boost Last?').
“But I suspect Republicans will win their Senate races in Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, and I'd be quite surprised if they lost in Wisconsin. Control of these states is teetering on a razor's edge, and I just don't see a world where Democrats win with a historically unpopular president, real wages falling, and such an overwhelming sense of global and national instability.”
What happened: Democrats won all three. GA: Warnock (D) 1,820,633 (51.40%) to Walker (R) in the Dec 6, 2022 runoff (Warnock 49.44% to Walker 48.49% in the general). AZ: Kelly (D) 1,322,027 (51.39%) to Masters (R) 1,196,308 (46.51%). NV: Cortez Masto (D) 498,316 (48.81%) to Laxalt (R) 490,388 (48.04%). FEC Federal Elections 2022.
Julián Castro does not run for the Texas Senate seat (2020) after his presidential run
What happened: Castro ended his presidential campaign on Jan 2, 2020 and did not enter the 2020 Texas Senate race (Democratic nominee: MJ Hegar). Checked: FEC 2020 TX Senate table lists Cornyn (R) and Hegar (D, runoff winner); no Castro on the primary, runoff or general ballot.
Become a Founding Member. Founding members get pundit scorecards free forever.
We store your email (and your name, if you give it) only to contact you about The Country. It is not shared or sold. To be removed, ask through our contact form.
