✕WRONG
Watch at 00:04:34“why I think [Kamala] is going to win”
Saagar: Harris wins North Carolina (driven by Mark Robinson's weakness in the governor's race).
What happened: Trump won North Carolina.
Outcome evidenceHow accurate are Krystal Ball & Saagar Enjeti? 38% on 8 graded calls
Krystal Ball & Saagar Enjeti are right on 38% of graded predictions on The Country's pundit scorecard: 3 correct and 5 wrong on 8 graded calls, No. 11 of 13 ranked pundits. Listed in the Center column.
−NOT GRADED
Watch at 00:10:50“I think Trump is gonna win”
Trump wins Arizona.
−NOT GRADED
Source“Alright y’all here’s my map! Kamala wins all 7 swing states but I don’t have the balls to give her anything crazy like Iowa or Florida.”
Krystal Ball: Harris wins all seven swing states.
What happened: Trump won all seven swing states.
Outcome evidenceOne host's call, not shared by both hosts.
−NOT GRADED
Source“here’s my prediction: Trump wins 271-267”
Saagar Enjeti: Trump wins the Electoral College 271-267.
−NOT GRADED
Source“I'll say the Catherine Cortez Master holds on there ... Mark Kelly holds on in Arizona ... she holds on there as well”
Krystal (inferred): Democrats hold NV, AZ and NH Senate seats.
What happened: Cortez Masto, Kelly and Hassan all won.
Outcome evidenceOne host's call, not shared by both hosts.
−NOT GRADED
Source“I think Lexa will pull it out by maybe one point ... I think Masters pulls it out by a couple ... I'm just gonna say Brian balduck”
Saagar (inferred): Republicans flip NV (Laxalt), AZ (Masters) and NH (Bolduc).
What happened: All three Republicans lost.
Outcome evidenceOne host's call, not shared by both hosts.
−NOT GRADED
Source“Georgia Georgia I think Herschel Walker's gonna win ... ultimately will probably Prevail on the runoff”
Walker wins the Georgia Senate race, via a runoff.
What happened: Georgia went to a runoff as both hosts expected, but Warnock led round one and won the Dec 6 runoff 51.4-48.6.
Outcome evidenceNot graded: obvious call.
✕WRONG
Source“the house is going Republican ... do you have any guess of the margin I'm gonna say R plus 25 yeah ... I was gonna say the same thing”
GOP House net gain of about R+25 (margin only; control part split into N006)
What happened: Republicans won the House 222-213. Net gain of +9 from the 213 seats they won in 2020 (a gain of 10 against the pre-election count; the R+25 call misses by 15 either way).
Outcome evidence−NOT GRADED
Source“I think we both agree Ohio JD Vance is going to win it's not going to be particularly close ... North Carolina is another one that sort of is in that realm ... I think the Republican holds on”
Republicans hold OH (Vance) and NC, neither close
What happened: OH: Vance +6.1 (53.0-46.9). NC: Budd +3.2 (50.5-47.3).
Outcome evidenceNot graded: obvious call.
−NOT GRADED
Source“Wisconsin ... Ron Johnson is going to hang on they're not particularly close”
Johnson holds WI, not close
What happened: WI: Johnson 50.4% to Barnes 49.4% (+1.0): he held it, but it was close, so the "not particularly close" claim failed.
Outcome evidenceNot graded: obvious call.
−NOT GRADED
Source“I think it's going to be a complete Red Wave I think the Republicans are going to win every single one of these seats ... [Krystal:] the house that one's pretty obvious like I think that's gone for Democrats I um genuine generally agree with your analysis”
Republicans win control of the House in 2022
−NOT GRADED
Source“[Saagar:] coronavirus pandemic and its link to trump's approval is likely what will doom him today ... if you're not hitting that then you're just going to lose | [Krystal:] blue wall goes back to blue ... and biden wins a big electoral college victory”
Biden wins the 2020 presidency
What happened: Biden won 306 electoral votes to Trump's 232.
Outcome evidenceNot graded: obvious call.
✓CORRECT
Source“[Saagar:] arizona which i'm also giving to biden for the same reason | [Krystal:] i think arizona is far enough along the realignment track for dems to pick it off this year”
Biden wins Arizona
What happened: Biden 1,672,143 (49.36%) to Trump 1,661,686 (49.06%).
Outcome evidence−NOT GRADED
Source“[Saagar:] i give the formerly known blue wall to biden ... wisconsin ... michigan ... pennsylvania | [Krystal:] blue wall goes back to blue”
Biden wins Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania
What happened: WI Biden 49.45%, MI 50.62%, PA 49.85%; Biden won all three.
Outcome evidenceNot graded: obvious call.
−NOT GRADED
Source“California it's the whole game we both think Sanders is gonna win”
Sanders wins the California primary
✕WRONG
Source“Massachusetts I think Bernie pulls off the win there ... I think he will pull that off tonight yeah I think that's right”
Sanders wins the Massachusetts primary
What happened: Biden 33.51% to Sanders 26.66%.
Outcome evidence✓CORRECT
Source“Virginia ... yeah that's one of those states where data for progress in particular really saw him shoot up ... yeah I think those are both states were the consolidation of older african-americans and suburban voters around Biden is gonna be enough to put him over the top”
Biden wins Virginia and North Carolina
What happened: VA: Biden 53.30% to Sanders 23.15%. NC: Biden 42.95% to Sanders 24.22%.
Outcome evidence✕WRONG
Source“(And JD is going to win!)”
Scholten beats Steve King in IA-4, 2018
What happened: Steve King (R) 157,676 vs J. D. Scholten (D) 147,246.
Outcome evidence✕WRONG
Source“Nate’s got this one wrong. @Ojeda4congress is going to win.”
Ojeda wins WV-3 in 2018
What happened: Carol Miller (R) 98,645 vs Richard Ojeda (D) 76,340 (Clerk, 2018 statistics).
Outcome evidence✓CORRECT
Source“I got news though, @JahanaHayes is going to win anyway.”
Jahana Hayes wins CT-5 (nomination and seat) in 2018
What happened: Hayes won the Aug 14 Democratic primary and the general: 142,901 (+8,324 WFP) vs Manny Santos (R) 115,146.
Outcome evidence