Michael Moore is right on 56% of graded predictions on The Country's pundit scorecard: 5 correct and 4 wrong on 9 graded calls, No. 6 of 13 ranked pundits. Listed in the Left column.
Source“Harris will also win 6 of the 8 Great Lakes States: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Pennsylvania and New York.”
Harris carries MN, WI, MI, IL, PA and NY.
What happened: Harris won MN, IL, NY; Trump won WI, MI, PA.
Outcome evidenceSource“In the 2 states that don’t do winner-take-all electors, Maine and Nebraska, Trump will win one elector from Maine and Harris will win one elector from Nebraska.”
Electors split: Trump wins ME-2, Harris wins NE-2.
What happened: Trump won Maine’s 2nd district elector; Harris won Nebraska’s 2nd district elector.
Outcome evidenceSource“So right now the crystal ball brings the Harris and Trump totals to… Harris: 270 Trump: 268”
Harris wins the Electoral College 270-268.
What happened: Trump won 312-226.
Outcome evidenceSaid again (2×, counted once):
Source“After the election on Wednesday, as I had for weeks, I tried to assure you that not only are we going to win the Senate seats in Nevada, Arizona and the Georgia runoff on December 6th, I think we are going to hold the House!”
Warnock wins the Dec 6, 2022 Georgia runoff
What happened: Warnock won the Dec 6, 2022 runoff and is a sitting senator.
Outcome evidenceSource“We’re going to win the Senate in Nov!”
Democrats keep the Senate in Nov 2022
What happened: Democrats kept control: 51 seats including 2 independents at the start of the 118th Congress. (The senate.gov party-division page now shows 47 D + 4 I after later changes in party affiliation.)
Outcome evidenceSource“Trump can & will be stopped. ... Only a hardcore fighter leading a movement of millions can now bring him down.”
Trump will be defeated (implied window: Nov 2020 election)
What happened: Biden beat Trump 306-232 (FEC, Federal Elections 2020).
Outcome evidenceConditional whose condition can't be measured.
Source“You have to listen this time because he is going to win the 2020 election.”
Trump wins the 2020 presidential election
What happened: Biden won 306 electoral votes to Trump's 232.
Outcome evidenceSource“I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but as things stand today, I think Trump will win.”
Trump wins the 2016 presidency
What happened: Trump won 304-227 in the Electoral College (FEC, Federal Elections 2016).
Outcome evidenceSource“He doesn’t need Florida. He doesn’t need Colorado or Virginia. Just Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And that will put him over the top. This is how it will happen in November.”
Trump carries MI, OH, PA and WI in Nov 2016 (the Rust Belt path)
What happened: Trump carried all four: MI, OH, PA, WI.
Outcome evidenceSource“Whoever the Democrat is on the ballot come November will win.”
The 2016 Democratic nominee wins in November
What happened: Clinton lost the Electoral College 227-304.
Outcome evidenceBecome a Founding Member. Founding members get pundit scorecards free forever.
We store your email (and your name, if you give it) only to contact you about The Country. It is not shared or sold. To be removed, ask through our contact form.