Michael Smerconish is right on 75% of graded predictions so far on The Country's pundit scorecard: 3 correct and 1 wrong on 4 graded calls, listed in the Center column. That is 1 short of the 5 graded calls needed for a ranking.
Source“I'm convinced they're going to get this guy.”
Police will catch the UnitedHealthcare CEO's killer.
What happened: Luigi Mangione was arrested Dec 9, 2024 in Altoona, Pa., and charged (AP via PBS).
Outcome evidenceNot graded: obvious call.
Source“I doubt he will be the nominee.”
Biden will not be the 2024 Democratic nominee.
What happened: Biden withdrew on Jul 21, 2024 (his letter, American Presidency Project, UCSB); Harris became the nominee.
Outcome evidenceNot graded: hedged.
Source“You put those two together, I predict that balloon will be popped in the next 48 hours.”
The Chinese spy balloon will be shot down within 48 hours.
What happened: The U.S. shot the balloon down about 2:40 p.m. ET on Feb 4, 2023, after the 9 a.m. ET show (AP via PBS).
Outcome evidenceSource“I think Shapiro is going to beat Mastriano handily.”
Shapiro beats Mastriano by a wide margin for PA governor.
What happened: Shapiro won; PA Department of State tabulation 3,000,519 to 2,230,525 of 5,194,677 (57.8% to 42.9%, about 15 points).
Outcome evidenceNot graded: obvious call.
Source“There's no way that Alba will be convicted nor should be convicted.”
Bodega clerk Jose Alba will not be convicted of murder.
What happened: The Manhattan DA moved to dismiss and a judge dismissed the murder charge on Jul 19, 2022 (NY1; CBS New York).
Outcome evidenceSource“If you frame this as -- there will be -- I'm sure with President-elect Biden and Speaker Pelosi being able to get together with the Senate, of course, whether it's McConnell or Schumer, there will be another stimulus.”
Congress will pass another stimulus package.
What happened: Trump signed the $900 billion pandemic relief package with $600 payments on Dec 27, 2020 (AP via PBS; Library of Congress).
Outcome evidenceNot graded: obvious call.
Source“My prediction for @TIME 2019 Person of the Year - The Diplomat”
TIME names 'The Diplomat' (the impeachment-inquiry diplomats) 2019 Person of the Year.
What happened: TIME named Greta Thunberg its 2019 Person of the Year on Dec 11, 2019 (TIME).
Outcome evidenceSource“My prediction about Montco DA race - whoever wins, Castor or Steele - Will Be prosecuting #BillCosby come January 2016.”
The next Montgomery County DA is prosecuting Bill Cosby by January 2016.
What happened: Cosby was charged Dec 30, 2015 by the Montgomery County DA's office; Kevin Steele (DA-elect) announced the charges and was counsel of record, with a preliminary hearing set for Jan 14, 2016 (DA press release; court docket).
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