How accurate is Paul Krugman? 50% on 6 graded calls

Paul Krugman is right on 50% of graded predictions on The Country's pundit scorecard: 3 correct and 3 wrong on 6 graded calls, No. 7 of 13 ranked pundits. Listed in the Left column.

Pundit scorecard

Sep 29, 2025CORRECT

“However, the other main piece of the ACA, subsidized insurance plans offered on government-run exchanges, will take a body blow in a few months unless Republicans do something totally uncharacteristic — provide help to Americans who need it.”

Source

If the enhanced ACA subsidies are not extended, the exchanges take a body blow in early 2026

What happened: Condition met: the enhanced premium tax credits expired at the end of 2025. KFF series: average monthly Marketplace premium payment net of tax credits rose 58%, from $113 (2025 baseline) to $178 (2026); average deductible up 37% to a record $3,786; effectuated enrollment projected at about 17.5M (as low as 16.5M), down from 22.3M in 2025; the first enrollment drop since the first Trump administration.

Outcome evidence

Aug 8, 2025CORRECT

“These sudden policy reversals will clearly lead to higher inflation over the next year or so.”

Source

Tariffs and deportations raise inflation over the next year.

What happened: Inflation rose from 2.94% a year earlier (Aug 2025) to 3.35% (Aug 2026), per the government's CPI.

Outcome evidence

Jun 4, 2025CORRECT

“But won’t tariffs create jobs in the steel industry itself? Maybe a few. But the tariffs won’t create many jobs, because steel employs so few workers to begin with — fewer than 90,000 in 2024, out of total U.S. employment of 159 million”

Source

Trump's steel tariffs (raised to 50% on Jun 4, 2025) won't create many steel jobs

What happened: BLS CES series CES3133110001 (Iron and steel mills and ferroalloy production, all employees, thousands, seasonally adjusted). Baseline May 2025 = 84.5K; Aug 2026 = 85.7K (preliminary). That is +1.2K (+1.4%) over 15 months, roughly 0.001% of total US employment.

Outcome evidence

May 20, 2025WRONG

“For 2025, I see little or no GDP growth”

Source

US real GDP growth in 2025 of 1.0% or less (the threshold for 'little or no').

What happened: Above 1.0% on both readings, BEA latest vintage (2026 annual update, released Sep 30, 2026 with 'GDP (Third Estimate)... 2nd Quarter 2026'). Quarterly real GDP, percent change at annual rates, per BEA GDP/GDI Vintage History xlsx (Last Updated September 30, 2026): 2024Q1 1.4, Q2 3.6, Q3 3.2, Q4 2.4; 2025Q1 0.1, Q2 4.0, Q3 3.9, Q4 0.2. Q4-over-Q4 2025: +2.0% ((1.001*1.040*1.039*1.002)^0.25 - 1 = 2.03%). Annual average 2025 vs 2024: +2.3% (2.34%), computed by chaining the same BEA quarterly rates into an index and averaging each year's four quarters. The Sep 30 release text doesn't restate the revised 2025 annual figure. Superseded vintage: Apr 9, 2026 third estimate, 2.1% annual and 2.0% Q4/Q4.

Outcome evidence

Feb 14, 2025NOT GRADED

“Instead, it seems highly likely that inflation will rise on his watch.”

Source

Inflation rises under Trump.

What happened: See P02 (CPI 2.94% Aug 2025 to 3.35% Aug 2026).

Outcome evidence

Stated as a probability ("highly likely").

Jan 8, 2025NOT GRADED

“whatever Trump does, inflation will probably remain low for much of this year.”

Source

Inflation stays low for much of 2025.

What happened: CPI-U SA 12-month change ranged 2.33% (Apr 2025) to 3.02% (Sep 2025) during 2025; Oct 2025 not published (FRED CPIAUCSL, computed from index levels).

Outcome evidence

Hedged ("probably").

Sep 10, 2021NOT GRADED

“And if we finally get this pandemic under control, the inflation of 2021 will soon fade from memory.”

Source

2021 inflation will be transitory if the pandemic is controlled.

What happened: Not graded (conditional). Context: CPI-U (CUUR0000SA0, NSA) rose 9.06% from Jun 2021 (271.696) to Jun 2022 (296.311), so 2021 inflation did not fade (BLS, pulled from data.bls.gov Oct 21, 2026).

Outcome evidence

Conditional, and a view rather than a dated forecast.

Jun 21, 2021WRONG

“For what it’s worth, I don’t think tapping the brakes will be required.”

Source

The Fed won't need to tighten (raise rates) to contain inflation.

What happened: The Fed raised its target rate starting Mar 17, 2022 and kept going until Jul 2023. Data series: FRED DFEDTARU (federal funds target range, upper limit). Baseline month: June 2021 = 0.25%. 0.50% on 2022-03-17, 4.50% on 2022-12-15, 5.50% on 2023-07-27.

Outcome evidence

Nov 9, 2016NOT GRADED

“If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.”

Source

Markets may never recover ("a first-pass answer is never").

What happened: The S&P 500 set a record close of 2,202.94 on Nov. 22, 2016.

Outcome evidence

Not graded: hedged.

May 30, 2012WRONG

“Something has to happen and in the end it does have to be a Greek exit. I'd be astonished if they can go more than two years without leaving. I'd be astonished if they could go even one year.”

Source

Greece leaves the euro within a year (by ~May 30, 2013)

What happened: Greece did not leave the euro by May 2013 (or since); it stayed in the euro area through the third bailout (Aug 2015) and remains a member.

Outcome evidence