−NOT GRADED
Source“I think he’s going to win the election.”
Trump wins the 2024 election.
How accurate is Piers Morgan? 75% on 8 graded calls
Piers Morgan is right on 75% of graded predictions on The Country's pundit scorecard: 6 correct and 2 wrong on 8 graded calls, No. 1 of 13 ranked pundits. Listed in the Right column.
−NOT GRADED
Source“@SadiqKhan will win massively because the Tories have put up no credible opposition to him.”
Khan wins the 2024 London mayoral election by a large margin
What happened: Khan 1,088,225 (44%) vs Hall 812,397 (33%): an 11-point margin, about 276k votes.
Outcome evidenceNot graded: obvious call.
✓CORRECT
Source“So, nobody will be sent to Rwanda (always a bonkers policy doomed to failure) and Mr Sunak will have to pay a refugee charity the £1k.”
No one will be removed to Rwanda under the scheme before the general election (the subject of his bet with Sunak)
What happened: No removal flight under the Rwanda scheme ever took off. Labour scrapped the scheme in July 2024. Home Secretary Cooper (HC Deb, July 22, 2024, c385): £700m spent 'in order to send just four volunteers' and 'flights that never took off'.
Outcome evidence✓CORRECT
Source“Rishi Sunak v Liz Truss for final 2.”
Sunak and Truss are the final two in the 2022 Tory leadership race
What happened: Final MP ballot, Jul 20, 2022: Sunak 137, Truss 113 (Mordaunt 105, out).
Outcome evidence✕WRONG
Source“Rishi wins.”
Sunak wins the 2022 Tory leadership
What happened: Members' vote, Sep 5, 2022: Truss 81,326 (57.4%) to Sunak 60,399 (42.6%).
Outcome evidence−NOT GRADED
Source“I predict a leadership contest soon which he will lose.”
Johnson faces a leadership challenge soon and loses it
What happened: Confidence vote Jun 6, 2022: Johnson won 211 to 148. He announced his resignation Jul 7, 2022 after mass ministerial resignations; he was not a candidate in the contest that followed.
Outcome evidenceTwo readings: the June 6 confidence vote (he won) or being forced out (he resigned July 7).
✓CORRECT
Source“I predict Rishi Sunak will be Prime Minister within a year.”
Sunak becomes PM by Nov 13, 2022
What happened: Sunak became Prime Minister on Oct 25, 2022, inside the window.
Outcome evidence✓CORRECT
Source“If this farce goes to the country, I predict a big win for Boris.”
If a general election is called, Johnson wins big
What happened: Condition met: early general election held Dec 12, 2019. Conservatives won 365 of 650 seats (+48), 43.6% of the vote, an 80-seat majority.
Outcome evidence✓CORRECT
Source“I predict resignations, mayhem & her ousting as PM.”
May's deal triggers ministerial resignations and she is ousted as PM
What happened: Nov 15, 2018: Raab (Brexit Secretary) and McVey (Work and Pensions) resigned over the deal, along with junior ministers Braverman and Vara. May 24, 2019: May announced she would resign as Conservative leader on Jun 7, 2019.
Outcome evidence✕WRONG
Source“The hysterical abuse you lot shower on him bears little relation to reality & will win him re-election.”
Trump is re-elected in 2020
What happened: Biden won 306 electoral votes to Trump's 232 (FEC 2020 presidential results).
Outcome evidence✓CORRECT
Source“I've just predicted Trump will win for a long time & I think he will.”
Trump wins the 2016 presidential election
What happened: Trump won 304 electoral votes to Clinton's 227 (FEC, Federal Elections 2016).
Outcome evidence