How accurate is Bill Mitchell? 17% on 6 graded calls

Bill Mitchell is right on 17% of graded predictions on The Country's pundit scorecard: 1 correct and 5 wrong on 6 graded calls, No. 14 of 15 ranked pundits. Listed in the Right column.

Pundit scorecard

Feb 18, 2026WRONG

“My theory is that if the Supreme Court was going to strike this down, they would have already. And the fact they're delaying means that they're not going to.”

Source

The Supreme Court does not strike down Trump's IEEPA tariffs (Learning Resources v. Trump / V.O.S. Selections).

What happened: Struck down: on Feb 20, 2026 the Court held 'IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs' and affirmed the Federal Circuit in No. 25-250 (Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, No. 24-1287, slip opinion syllabus, fetched as PDF from supremecourt.gov this run).

Outcome evidence

Oct 10, 2023WRONG

“Mark my words. DeSantis will win Iowa.”

Source

Ron DeSantis wins the Jan 15, 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses.

What happened: Trump won the Iowa caucuses with 51.0%; DeSantis was second with about 21% (AP).

Outcome evidence

Nov 6, 2018NOT GRADED

“MY PREDICTION: Just as in 2016, Democrats will win by more in blue areas where they were already winning, but will lose the battlegrounds where it counts.”

Source

Democrats lose the 2018 battlegrounds (chamber not stated).

What happened: Democrats gained 40 House seats and the majority; Republicans gained 2 Senate seats (House and Senate party-division tables).

Outcome evidence

Not graded: ambiguous.

Nov 7, 2016CORRECT

“I predict Donald Trump will win MI.”

Source

Trump wins Michigan in the Nov 8, 2016 presidential election.

What happened: Trump carried Michigan by 10,704 votes, 47.5% to 47.3% (FEC Federal Elections 2016, certified).

Outcome evidence

Oct 29, 2016WRONG

“I'm sticking with my prediction of a 5-6 point Trump win.”

Source

Trump wins the 2016 national popular vote by 5-6 points.

Outcome evidence

Apr 4, 2016NOT GRADED

“I predict Trump will win the nomination and we'll all look back and wonder what we were so upset about. :-)”

Source

Trump wins the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.

What happened: Trump was nominated at the Republican National Convention on Jul 19, 2016 and was the Republican candidate on the Nov 2016 ballot (FEC Federal Elections 2016).

Outcome evidence

Not graded: obvious call.

Mar 11, 2016WRONG

“Here is my prediction. Not only will Trump win a landslide election in November but he will earn even larger House and Senate Majorities.”

Source

Trump wins the 2016 presidential election in a landslide AND Republicans gain House and Senate seats (one combined call).

What happened: Trump won the Electoral College 304-227 but lost the national popular vote: Clinton 65,853,514 (48.2%), Trump 62,984,828 (46.1%), a 2.1-point Clinton margin (FEC Federal Elections 2016). Republicans lost seats in both chambers: House 247 -> 241, Senate 54 -> 52 (House and Senate party-division tables).

Outcome evidence

Feb 19, 2016WRONG

“My prediction: After yet another caucus debacle, Iowa loses 1st in nation status in 2020.”

Source

Iowa is no longer the first nominating contest in the 2020 presidential cycle.

What happened: Iowa held the first contest of the 2020 cycle: the Democratic and Republican caucuses on Feb 3, 2020 (AP; Reuters calendar of key dates).

Outcome evidence