Adam Carlson
Stratton +2
Who Called It
Graded pundit predictions, grouped by what actually happened.
Every call below is already graded on The Country pundit scorecard. For known outcomes, see who predicted correctly and who got it wrong.
Grades follow The Country's published method. We score the outlet or pundit's own words against a documented outcome - not vibes. Read how grading works on the method page.
Stratton's margin over second place (Krishnamoorthi) is +2 points.
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Certified margin Stratton +7.68 (40.39% to 32.71%, DDHQ certified), 5.68 points off the +2 call (outside the ±1 point tolerance, method 2.4). Certified (DDHQ, fetched): Stratton 507,689 (40.39%), Krishnamoorthi 411,150 (32.71%). Winner reported Left/Center/Right: NPR Illinois ('Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton rode a late wave of momentum to win the Democratic nomination'), DDHQ certified results and Kalshi News ('defeating favorite Raja Krishnamoorthi'), Fox News ('Stratton on Tuesday topped Reps.'); Reuters and AP headlines also report Stratton's win (search listing, not fetched). Wrong. Outcome source
Juliana Stratton wins the 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate primary (winner part of 'Stratton +2').
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Stratton won the Mar 17, 2026 primary. Certified (DDHQ, fetched): Stratton 507,689 (40.39%), Krishnamoorthi 411,150 (32.71%). Winner reported Left/Center/Right: NPR Illinois ('Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton rode a late wave of momentum to win the Democratic nomination'), DDHQ certified results and Kalshi News ('defeating favorite Raja Krishnamoorthi'), Fox News ('Stratton on Tuesday topped Reps.'); Reuters and AP headlines also report Stratton's win (search listing, not fetched). Correct. Outcome source
Adam Carlson
Stratton +2
In the IL-09 Democratic primary, Daniel Biss's margin over second place (Kat Abughazaleh) is +5 points.
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Certified: Biss 38,804 (29.4%), Abughazaleh 34,707 (26.3%) = Biss +3.1 (exact 29.43-26.33 = +3.10; pollingsource and exa certified pages, fetched), 1.9 points off the +5 call (outside the ±1 point tolerance, method 2.4). Winner reported Left/Center/Right: The Advocate ('was defeated by Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss'), DDHQ called it (per Advocate), Fox News ('She lost to Daniel Biss'). Wrong. Outcome source
Adam Carlson
Biss +5
The Supreme Court does not strike down Trump's IEEPA tariffs (Learning Resources v. Trump / V.O.S. Selections).
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Struck down: on Feb 20, 2026 the Court held 'IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs' and affirmed the Federal Circuit in No. 25-250 (Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, No. 24-1287, slip opinion syllabus, fetched as PDF from supremecourt.gov this run). Outcome source
My theory is that if the Supreme Court was going to strike this down, they would have already. And the fact they're delaying means that they're not going to.
California's billionaire tax initiative fails to qualify for the 2026 ballot.
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:It qualified: eligible for the Nov 3, 2026 ballot on Jun 17, 2026 (California Secretary of State news release); now Proposition 40. Outcome source
Prediction: The Billionaire Tax will die and will not get to the ballot.
The cloture motion on the FY2026 package containing DHS appropriations fails with more than 40 senators voting no.
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Jan 29, 2026: the Senate cloture vote on the six-bill package (H.R. 7148, incl. DHS) failed 45 to 55; seven Republicans plus Majority Leader Thune (procedural) voted no, so Democrats supplied 47 of the 55 no votes (CBS News). Outcome source
With Rosen, Cortez Masto, and Warner all No’s on cloture on DHS Approps, the filibuster will get above 40 (I assume they’ll get almost every Dem senator).
The Trump administration does not release all the Epstein files covered by the Epstein Files Transparency Act.
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:DOJ said on Jan 30, 2026 it had published nearly 3.5 million pages and that materials not produced included records 'Withheld under privilege' (deliberative process, attorney-client). In Phang v. Blanche (D.D.C., No. 26-1417, opinion June 25, 2026), Judge Emmet Sullivan wrote that 'The Attorney General conceded that he is in violation of the Act' (foreign-language documents not reviewed, redaction log not published) and granted a preliminary injunction. Outcome source
Prediction: The Trump Administration will not release all the Epstein files.
Latest model point forecast Spanberger+8.5pp; replaces6.8 model and earlier personal7-8. The98% probability is NOT a separate grade.
Correct 0 · Wrong 3 · Partial 0
What happened:OFFICIAL: Spanberger1976857; Earle-Sears1449586; write-ins6897; total3433340; winning margin15.357378pp. Outcome source
Adam Carlson
VA GOV: 56% Spanberger 44% Earle-Sears
America First Insight
Updated eve-of-the-election model update. Along with some add-ons to the graphic. Spanberger expected to be D+8.5, with her winning 98% of the time.
Christian Heiens
@KingTruckle I stand by my previous prediction of about 8.5%.
Mamdani+10.0pp versus certified+9.459923; absolute error0.540077pp. Partial0.5 under existing ±1pp exact-number rule, NOT full Correct.
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 1
What happened:Nov4 general, certified Dec2: Mamdani1114184; Cuomo906614; valid votes2194204; Mamdani50.778506%; winning margin9.459923pp. Outcome source
Adam Carlson
NYC MAYOR: 54% Mamdani 34% Cuomo 11% Sliwa
America First Insight
- NYC Mayor 🔵D+10.0
Sherrill margin >=5 percentage points, a range/floor, NOT an exact5 prediction and NOT a claim to have foreseen a14-point blowout.
Correct 1 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Official Dec3 list: Sherrill1896610; Ciattarelli1417705; four-candidate total3334359; winning margin14.362731pp. Outcome source
Stacy Cay
@Ericrse37986 @krystalball Sherrill by at least 5
Adam Carlson
NJ GOV: 53% Sherrill 46% Ciattarelli
Spanberger wins the Nov 4, 2025 Virginia governor race by 10 points or more.
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Certified results: Spanberger 1,976,857, Earle-Sears 1,449,586 (57.6% to 42.2%, about 15.4 points), certified by the Virginia Department of Elections (Cville Right Now, Dec 2, 2025; official results at enr.elections.virginia.gov). Outcome source
My prediction: Spanberger by double digits.
If the enhanced ACA subsidies are not extended, the exchanges take a body blow in early 2026
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Condition met: the enhanced premium tax credits expired at the end of 2025. KFF series: average monthly Marketplace premium payment net of tax credits rose 58%, from $113 (2025 baseline) to $178 (2026); average deductible up 37% to a record $3,786; effectuated enrollment projected at about 17.5M (as low as 16.5M), down from 22.3M in 2025; the first enrollment drop since the first Trump administration. Outcome source
However, the other main piece of the ACA, subsidized insurance plans offered on government-run exchanges, will take a body blow in a few months unless Republicans do something totally uncharacteristic — provide help to Americans who need it.
Tariffs and deportations raise inflation over the next year.
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Inflation rose from 2.94% a year earlier (Aug 2025) to 3.35% (Aug 2026), per the government's CPI. Outcome source
These sudden policy reversals will clearly lead to higher inflation over the next year or so.
Mamdani's final-round margin over Cuomo is +1.4 points (50.7% to 49.3%).
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Certified final round: Mamdani 573,169 (56.39%), Cuomo 443,229 (43.61%); margin +12.78 points, 11.4 points off the +1.4 call (outside the ±1 point tolerance, method 2.4). Wrong. Outcome source
Adam Carlson
Round 10: Andrew Cuomo 49.3% | Zohran Mamdani 50.7% [table image]
Trump's steel tariffs (raised to 50% on Jun 4, 2025) won't create many steel jobs
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:BLS CES series CES3133110001 (Iron and steel mills and ferroalloy production, all employees, thousands, seasonally adjusted). Baseline May 2025 = 84.5K; Aug 2026 = 85.7K (preliminary). That is +1.2K (+1.4%) over 15 months, roughly 0.001% of total US employment. Outcome source
But won’t tariffs create jobs in the steel industry itself? Maybe a few. But the tariffs won’t create many jobs, because steel employs so few workers to begin with — fewer than 90,000 in 2024, out of total U.S. employment of 159 million
The Trump administration loses the birthright citizenship case (Executive Order 14160) on the merits at the Supreme Court.
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Lost on the merits: on Jun 30, 2026 the Court held children born in the US to parents unlawfully or temporarily present 'are citizens at birth under the Fourteenth Amendment's Citizenship Clause' (Trump v. Barbara, No. 25-365, slip opinion syllabus, fetched as PDF from supremecourt.gov this run). Outcome source
The Trump administration knows it will lose the birthright citizenship case on the merits, so it is avoiding that fight altogether.
US real GDP growth in 2025 of 1.0% or less (the threshold for 'little or no').
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Above 1.0% on both readings, BEA latest vintage (2026 annual update, released Sep 30, 2026 with 'GDP (Third Estimate)... 2nd Quarter 2026'). Quarterly real GDP, percent change at annual rates, per BEA GDP/GDI Vintage History xlsx (Last Updated September 30, 2026): 2024Q1 1.4, Q2 3.6, Q3 3.2, Q4 2.4; 2025Q1 0.1, Q2 4.0, Q3 3.9, Q4 0.2. Q4-over-Q4 2025: +2.0% ((1.001*1.040*1.039*1.002)^0.25 - 1 = 2.03%). Annual average 2025 vs 2024: +2.3% (2.34%), computed by chaining the same BEA quarterly rates into an index and averaging each year's four quarters. The Sep 30 release text doesn't restate the revised 2025 annual figure. Superseded vintage: Apr 9, 2026 third estimate, 2.1% annual and 2.0% Q4/Q4. Outcome source
For 2025, I see little or no GDP growth
Pete Hegseth is out as Defense Secretary by Friday, Mar 28, 2025.
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Hegseth stayed in the job. Reuters, Apr 21, 2025: 'President Donald Trump said on Monday that he stood behind U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth'; AP the same day: 'The White House expressed support Monday for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth'. Outcome source
Prediction: Hegseth gone by Friday.
A US strike on Iran's nuclear sites leads to thousands of American deaths at Middle East bases.
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:The US struck the sites Jun 21-22, 2025; Iran's Jun 23 retaliation on Al Udeid caused no casualties (AP). Even counting the 2026 war, the Pentagon's toll is 21 service members killed (Washington Post, Oct 10, 2026). Outcome source
a strike on the Iranian nuclear sites will almost certainly result in thousands of American deaths at bases throughout the Middle East
SCOTUS sides with the girls under Title IX (girls-only teams allowed).
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:West Virginia v. B.P.J. / Little v. Hecox, June 30, 2026, 6-3. Held 1 (syllabus): 'Title IX allows schools to provide separate women’s and men’s sports teams defined by biological sex, and West Virginia has permissibly maintained female sports for biological females consistent with Title IX.' Held 2 is Equal Protection; the holding rests on Title IX independently. Outcome source
I predict SCOTUS *will* side with the girls & will uphold girls’ rights under Title IX & the Trump EO.
Elon Musk never again takes reporters' questions in the Oval Office with Trump.
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:May 30, 2025: at an Oval Office event with Trump marking the end of Musk's DOGE role, Musk answered reporters. Reuters: 'Asked about the injury, Musk said he was "horsing around" with his son'; The Hill: 'Trump and Musk also fielded several questions from reporters during the Oval Office press conference'. Outcome source
Prediction: Trump will never again let Musk take questions in the Oval Office.
Trump's approval is above 50% by Jan. 2026.
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Gallup approval, Dec. 1-15, 2025: 36%. Next readings: AP-NORC Jan. 8-11, 2026: 40%; CNN Jan. 9-12, 2026: 39%. Outcome source
one year from today Donald Trump's approval rating will be over 50%
At least one of Trump's pending nominees will fail.
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:After this post, the White House withdrew Dave Weldon's CDC director nomination on Mar 13, 2025 because he lacked the Senate votes. Outcome source
Indeed I predict one or more will go down.
McConnell leads opposition to RFK Jr.; the nomination fails.
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:The Senate confirmed RFK Jr. 52-48 on Feb 13, 2025 (McConnell was the lone Republican no). Outcome source
Prediction: Mitch McConnell will lead the opposition to confirming RFK Jr. And the opposition will succeed.
Biden resigns early so Harris becomes president before Jan 20, 2025 (and she pardons Hunter Biden).
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Biden served his full term (President 2021-2025) and pardoned Hunter himself on Dec 1, 2024 (American Presidency Project, UCSB); Harris never became president. Outcome source
They are calling for Biden to STEP DOWN So Kamala can be the first female president for a couple months I bet it happens and she pardons Hunter
Hovde (R) wins the Wisconsin Senate race.
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Baldwin (D) won. Outcome source
I think [Hovde] wins that race.
Kamala Harris wins the 2024 presidential election with 276 electoral votes (a narrow Electoral College win).
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Harris lost the Electoral College 226-312 to Trump (FEC official 2024 results; National Archives). Outcome source
But I think that Kamala Harris will win a narrow electoral college victory with 276 electoral votes. So that's what I think is going to happen tonight.
Trump wins PA, MI and WI.
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Trump carried all three Rust Belt states: MI Trump 2,816,636 to Harris 2,736,533 (15 EV); PA 3,543,308 to 3,423,042 (19 EV); WI 1,697,626 to 1,668,229 (10 EV). FEC, Official 2024 Presidential General Election Results (source: state elections offices). Outcome source
I think Trump's going to win all of them.
Harris wins North Carolina.
Correct 0 · Wrong 2 · Partial 0
What happened:Trump won North Carolina. Outcome source
Kamala Harris will win Pennsylvania and North Carolina, and also lose the election.
why I think [Kamala] is going to win
Harris wins Pennsylvania.
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Trump won Pennsylvania. Outcome source
Kamala Harris will win Pennsylvania and North Carolina, and also lose the election.
Harris wins the 2024 presidential election.
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Trump won, 312-226 electoral votes (certified). Outcome source
Yes, the election’s on a knife’s edge. But voters are going to look at the dark future on offer from Donald Trump, and the hopeful one on offer from Kamala Harris, and do the right thing. We’re going to win the election.
Harris wins the Electoral College 270-268.
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Trump won 312-226. Outcome source
So right now the crystal ball brings the Harris and Trump totals to… Harris: 270 Trump: 268
Harris carries MN, WI, MI, IL, PA and NY.
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Harris won MN, IL, NY; Trump won WI, MI, PA. Outcome source
Harris will also win 6 of the 8 Great Lakes States: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Pennsylvania and New York.
Electors split: Trump wins ME-2, Harris wins NE-2.
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Trump won Maine’s 2nd district elector; Harris won Nebraska’s 2nd district elector. Outcome source
In the 2 states that don’t do winner-take-all electors, Maine and Nebraska, Trump will win one elector from Maine and Harris will win one elector from Nebraska.
Trump loses the 2024 presidential election
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Trump won 312 electoral votes to Harris's 226. Outcome source
Tonight, I'm saying, I think it's over. ... I just think he's going to lose. ... It'll be tied on Election Day, as always it will. The polls will be tied, and then he'll lose. That's my prediction. We'll see.
Biden will not be the 2024 Democratic nominee.
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Biden withdrew on July 21, 2024. Outcome source
he is not going to be the democrat's candidate for president in 2024
Biden exits the race by about Jul 10, 2024
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:He withdrew on Jul 21, 2024, 18 days after the call. Outcome source
I don’t think he has more than a week left.
Biden is pushed out as the Democratic nominee.
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Biden withdrew Jul 21, 2024 (AP). Outcome source
Biden is done. Bet on it. ... They have to remove him, and they will.
Biden's 2024 campaign is finished; he won't be the nominee
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Biden withdrew on Jul 21, 2024; Harris was nominated. Outcome source
In my view, it is over for Joe Biden. His presidential campaign came to an end tonight, whether he knows it or not.
Trump picks Marco Rubio as his 2024 running mate (the post says 'Bookmark for July').
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Trump announced Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate on Jul 15, 2024 (Trump statement, American Presidency Project, UCSB). Outcome source
I’m ready to issue my Official Pundit Prediction. I think it’s Marco.
Trump loses Trump v. United States (his presidential-immunity appeal) at the Supreme Court.
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Trump won: on Jul 1, 2024 the Court held a former president has absolute immunity for acts within his core constitutional authority and at least presumptive immunity for other official acts, and vacated the D.C. Circuit judgment that had denied immunity (Trump v. United States, No. 23-939; Reuters: 'US Supreme Court rules Trump has broad immunity from prosecution'). Outcome source
Trump isn’t going to win this immunity case.
Trump does not win the national popular vote in the Nov 5, 2024 presidential election.
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Trump won the national popular vote 77,302,580 (49.8%) to Harris's 75,017,613 (48.3%) (FEC official 2024 results). Outcome source
I don’t think Trump will win the popular vote, but I do think this map is spot on in terms of likeliest outcome.
Congress passes the stalled ~$61 billion Ukraine aid package.
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Signed into law Apr 24, 2024 as Public Law 118-50, Division B: Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024 (GovInfo). Outcome source
But at the end of the day, I expect something will pass. Pockets don’t line themselves.
No one will be removed to Rwanda under the scheme before the general election (the subject of his bet with Sunak)
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:No removal flight under the Rwanda scheme ever took off. Labour scrapped the scheme in July 2024. Home Secretary Cooper (HC Deb, July 22, 2024, c385): £700m spent 'in order to send just four volunteers' and 'flights that never took off'. Outcome source
So, nobody will be sent to Rwanda (always a bonkers policy doomed to failure) and Mr Sunak will have to pay a refugee charity the £1k.
Trump is president in mid-January 2025.
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Trump was inaugurated Jan. 20, 2025. Outcome source
I'm gonna have to say Donald Trump
Biden quits the 2024 race soon, before the primaries, so party leaders can appoint a nominee without a primary.
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Biden stayed in through the primaries and withdrew on Jul 21, 2024, more than six months later (his letter, American Presidency Project, UCSB). Outcome source
Biden will drop out soon
A Roberts opinion grounded in judicial restraint
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Per curiam (not signed by Roberts), resting on Congress's Section 5 enforcement power, not judicial restraint. Outcome source
CJ Roberts' opinion will ignore every major trend in jurisprudence of the last 50 years in favor of a 1950s-1960s/Frankfurter-Alex Bickel type opinion lauding the virtues of judicial restraint.
Ron DeSantis wins the Jan 15, 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses.
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Trump won the Iowa caucuses with 51.0%; DeSantis was second with about 21% (AP). Outcome source
Mark my words. DeSantis will win Iowa.
DeSantis endorses Trump
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:He endorsed Trump when he dropped out, Jan 21, 2024. Outcome source
endorses Trump.
DeSantis drops out before the Iowa caucuses
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:He stayed in through Iowa (Jan 15, 2024) and dropped out Jan 21, 2024. Outcome source
DeSantis gets out before Iowa
The House impeaches Biden (implied window: his term, ending Jan 20, 2025).
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Biden was never impeached. The House Historian's list of everyone impeached by the House has no Biden entry; the last entries are Trump (2019, 2021) and Mayorkas (Feb 13, 2024). Outcome source
Joe Biden will be impeached for obstructing the investigation into hunter
Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive fails to cut Russia's land bridge to Crimea or force Russia to negotiate.
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:The counteroffensive stalled without reaching the Sea of Azov; Zelenskyy told AP on Dec 1, 2023 'we did not achieve the desired results' (CBS News/AP); Reuters, Dec 21, 2023: 'Four factors that stalled Ukraine's counteroffensive'. Outcome source
the Biden administration’s bet was that the counteroffensive would roll back Russian territorial gains, cut the land bridge to Crimea, and force Russia to the negotiating table. That is almost certainly not going to happen.
After his Fox exit, Carlson goes independent with a podcast or digital show and draws a big audience.
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Carlson launched 'Tucker on Twitter' on Jun 6, 2023 (NBC News: ~26M views for episode 1); his Aug 23, 2023 Trump interview drew 74M+ views on X; Tucker Carlson Network launched Dec 11, 2023 with an audio podcast (Reuters). Outcome source
I predict Tucker goes independent, launches a podcast or digital show, and crushes it
The Chinese spy balloon will be shot down within 48 hours.
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:The U.S. shot the balloon down about 2:40 p.m. ET on Feb 4, 2023, after the 9 a.m. ET show (AP via PBS). Outcome source
You put those two together, I predict that balloon will be popped in the next 48 hours.
Warnock wins the Dec 6, 2022 Georgia runoff
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Warnock won the Dec 6, 2022 runoff and is a sitting senator. Outcome source
After the election on Wednesday, as I had for weeks, I tried to assure you that not only are we going to win the Senate seats in Nevada, Arizona and the Georgia runoff on December 6th, I think we are going to hold the House!
Trump will win the 2024 Republican nomination.
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Trump was the 2024 Republican nominee (FEC official results list him as the Republican candidate). Outcome source
I still think Donald Trump is going to get the nomination, for this reason.
Lee Zeldin (R) beats Gov. Kathy Hochul in the 2022 New York governor race.
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Hochul (D) won 53.1% to 46.7% (Ballotpedia). Outcome source
In fact, if I had to predict, I think I'd say it's going to be Zeldin.
GOP House net gain of about R+25 (margin only; control part split into N006)
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Republicans won the House 222-213. Net gain of +9 from the 213 seats they won in 2020 (a gain of 10 against the pre-election count; the R+25 call misses by 15 either way). Outcome source
the house is going Republican ... do you have any guess of the margin I'm gonna say R plus 25 yeah ... I was gonna say the same thing
Republicans will win 53 (maybe 54) Senate seats.
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Republicans won 49 seats; Democrats kept control 51-49. Outcome source
talk to me about the senate right now. i'm saying 53, maybe 54.
A big Republican wave in the 2022 midterms.
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Republicans won the House 222-213 (a net gain of 9); Democrats held the Senate 51-49. Outcome source
I think the red wave that's coming is going to be like the elevator doors opening up in the Shining
Republicans win both the House and the Senate in the 2022 midterms.
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Republicans won the House 222-213 but Democrats kept the Senate majority in the 118th Congress (history.house.gov; senate.gov party divisions). Outcome source
Actually it is Democrats’ fault that Republicans are going to sweep the midterms.
Trump is reelected rather than jailed.
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Trump won the 2024 election. Outcome source
it's not going to jail Trump it's going to get him reelected
GOP holds the 2022 Wisconsin Senate seat
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Johnson (R, incumbent) 1,337,185 (50.41%) to Barnes (D) 1,310,467 (49.41%). FEC Federal Elections 2022. Outcome source
and I'd be quite surprised if they lost in Wisconsin.
GOP wins the 2022 Senate races in GA, AZ and NV
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Democrats won all three. GA: Warnock (D) 1,820,633 (51.40%) to Walker (R) in the Dec 6, 2022 runoff (Warnock 49.44% to Walker 48.49% in the general). AZ: Kelly (D) 1,322,027 (51.39%) to Masters (R) 1,196,308 (46.51%). NV: Cortez Masto (D) 498,316 (48.81%) to Laxalt (R) 490,388 (48.04%). FEC Federal Elections 2022. Outcome source
But I suspect Republicans will win their Senate races in Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, and I'd be quite surprised if they lost in Wisconsin. Control of these states is teetering on a razor's edge, and I just don't see a world where Democrats win with a historically unpopular president, real wages falling, and such an overwhelming sense of global and national instability.
Trump will announce his 2024 run around Aug 20, 2022
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:He filed his Statement of Candidacy on Nov 15, 2022, almost three months later. Outcome source
Prediction (FWIW!): Motivated by news about the DOJ investigation and worries about DeSantis et al, but trumpeting what could be three or four primary defeats earlier in August of House Republicans who voted to impeach, Trump announces his 2024 candidacy around August 20, 2022.
Bodega clerk Jose Alba will not be convicted of murder.
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:The Manhattan DA moved to dismiss and a judge dismissed the murder charge on Jul 19, 2022 (NY1; CBS New York). Outcome source
There's no way that Alba will be convicted nor should be convicted.
Sunak wins the 2022 Tory leadership
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Members' vote, Sep 5, 2022: Truss 81,326 (57.4%) to Sunak 60,399 (42.6%). Outcome source
Rishi wins.
Sunak and Truss are the final two in the 2022 Tory leadership race
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Final MP ballot, Jul 20, 2022: Sunak 137, Truss 113 (Mordaunt 105, out). Outcome source
Rishi Sunak v Liz Truss for final 2.
John Thune (not Cornyn or another senator) is the next Senate Republican leader after Mitch McConnell.
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Senate Republicans elected Thune leader on Nov 13, 2024 by secret ballot, beating John Cornyn 29-24 in the second round (AP; Reuters). Outcome source
I think the gun deal all but guarantees Thune will replace McConnell as GOP leader in the Senate.
U.S. Ukraine aid will end up significantly higher than the $47B ($14B approved plus the $33B request) at the time.
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Congress approved about $175 billion for Ukraine by spring 2024. Outcome source
That ensures that the ultimate amounts will be significantly higher still.
Alito will drop the Hale citation from the final Dobbs opinion
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:The final opinion (June 24, 2022) still cites Hale, e.g. 'Sir Matthew Hale likewise described abortion of a quick...'. The PDF has 17 mentions of 'Hale'. Outcome source
Prediction: Whether he ends up writing for five or four or three justices, Justice Alito will drop from his final opinion in Dobbs his citation of the 17th century British jurist, Sir Matthew Hale.
Congress will pass Biden's Ukraine aid request.
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Congress passed the $40 billion Ukraine aid package with bipartisan support; Biden signed it May 21, 2022 (AP via PBS). Outcome source
And I also think that Congress will remain on board and will pass these budget requests from the president.
Democrats keep the Senate in Nov 2022
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Democrats kept control: 51 seats including 2 independents at the start of the 118th Congress. (The senate.gov party-division page now shows 47 D + 4 I after later changes in party affiliation.) Outcome source
We’re going to win the Senate in Nov!
Biden's Mar 1, 2022 State of the Union pitches a return to normal from Covid restrictions.
Correct 0 · Wrong 0 · Partial 1
What happened:Biden's Mar 1, 2022 State of the Union said 'we are moving forward safely, back to more normal routines' and 'COVID-19 need no longer control our lives' (PBS NewsHour full text). Outcome source
this is what we’ll hear from Biden at the State of the Union in 3 weeks: Democrats aren’t the party of endless Covid restrictions; they’re the party leading the country back to normalcy.
Snowden stays in Russia for at least 3 more years (to Jan 2025).
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Snowden remained in Russia past the end of the window (Jan 2025): granted Russian citizenship Sept 26, 2022 (BBC); still living in Russia in Feb 2025 (dpa fact check, Feb 20, 2025) and May 2025 (RFE/RL, May 30, 2025). Outcome source
Edward Snowden is going to be in Russia indefinitely can't leave the borders of that country without being immediately arrested for at least the next three years.
Democrats run Michelle Obama for president in 2024 with Kamala Harris as her running mate.
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Michelle Obama did not run; Harris became the 2024 Democratic nominee (AP, Aug 2024). Outcome source
And they're going to bring Harris. Michelle Obama and Harris. Harris comes back as the vice, Michelle Obama's the president.
Breyer retires during Biden's term
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Breyer retired June 30, 2022; Jackson sworn in. Outcome source
Stephen Breyer will retire from the Supreme Court before Biden leaves office.
Oz wins the 2022 PA Senate race
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Fetterman won and is a sitting senator (PA). Oz lost. Outcome source
Dr. Mehmet Oz will win his high-profile Senate race in Pennsylvania.
Sunak becomes PM by Nov 13, 2022
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Sunak became Prime Minister on Oct 25, 2022, inside the window. Outcome source
I predict Rishi Sunak will be Prime Minister within a year.
Trump runs in 2024 and wins the Republican nomination
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Trump filed for 2024 (FEC candidate P80001571, 2024 cycle) and was the Republican nominee; he won 312 electoral votes. Outcome source
Here's the easiest three predictions in the world. Trump will run in 2024. He will get the Republican nomination. And whatever happens on election night, the next day, he will announce that he won.
The Court will limit Roe but not overturn it; only two votes to overturn
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Dobbs: 'We hold that Roe and Casey must be overruled.' Five justices joined (Alito, Thomas, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barrett). Outcome source
Random, not very well-informed prediction: The Court will modify and limit Roe this term, allowing more restrictions on abortion post-viability or even post first-trimester, but there will be only two votes simply to overturn the 50-year old precedent.
What Biden's Aug 26, 2021 Kabul-attack speech would say (3 points)
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Biden (5:24 PM EDT): 'We will hunt you down and make you pay'; 'there is no evidence thus far ... that there has been collusion between the Taliban and ISIS'; 'I'd have only one alternative: Pour thousands of more troops back into Afghanistan'. Outcome source
Prediction for Biden's speech: 1. We will go after those who did this, no matter how long it takes (code for: not now); 2. This wasn't the Taliban's fault; 3. This just shows that we had to withdraw, because the only choices were full-scale war or this abject humiliation.
Bolsonaro makes the runoff in Brazil's 2022 presidential election.
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:First round Oct 2, 2022: Lula 48.4%, Bolsonaro 43.2%; the two went to the Oct 30 runoff (Reuters). Outcome source
If I had to bet, I'd bet on Bolsonaro making the runoff
By 2024 Kamala Harris is campaigning on her record as a tough former prosecutor.
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:In July 2024 Harris opened her campaign casting herself 'as a tough prosecutor with a winning record' and contrasting it with Trump's felony convictions (ABC News, Jul 23, 2024). Outcome source
by 2024 (if not the 2022 midterms), Kamala Harris will be emphasizing her credentials as a “tough on crime” former prosecutor.
The bipartisan infrastructure deal will hold.
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:The deal held: it passed with Republican votes (19 Senate, 13 House) and Biden signed it Nov 15, 2021 (AP via PBS). Outcome source
Yes, I think it will hold.
Alito won't write Brnovich; the opinion will be narrow, by or orchestrated by Roberts
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Brnovich v. DNC (July 1, 2021): 'ALITO, J., delivered the opinion of the Court.' Outcome source
my one-time only, totally worthless prediction: Alito doesn’t write Brnovich, instead we get a narrow, Roberts or Roberts-orchestrated decision.
The Fed won't need to tighten (raise rates) to contain inflation.
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:The Fed raised its target rate starting Mar 17, 2022 and kept going until Jul 2023. Data series: FRED DFEDTARU (federal funds target range, upper limit). Baseline month: June 2021 = 0.25%. 0.50% on 2022-03-17, 4.50% on 2022-12-15, 5.50% on 2023-07-27. Outcome source
For what it’s worth, I don’t think tapping the brakes will be required.
Liz Cheney does not attend the 2024 Republican National Convention.
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Cheney skipped the July 2024 Milwaukee convention (NYT/AP via WRAL, Jul 16, 2024). Outcome source
Here's my prediction: Liz Cheney won't even attend the 2024 GOP Convention, unless she's there working for MSNBC.
None of the 7 GOP senators who voted to convict Trump on Feb 13, 2021 speaks at the 2024 Republican National Convention
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:None of the 7 Republican senators who voted guilty on Senate roll call vote 59 (Feb 13, 2021) spoke: Burr, Cassidy, Collins, Murkowski, Romney, Sasse and Toomey. Source: RNC official program, via Democracy in Action. I checked the daily programs for Jul 15, 16, 17 and 18, 2024, and none of the 7 names appears on any day: https://www.democracyinaction.us/2024/republican/program071524.html , .../program071624.html , .../program071724.html , .../program071824.html (accessed Oct 21, 2026, 1:24 PM ET). Vote: senate.gov roll call vote 59, 117th Congress. Outcome source
Prediction: None of the Republicans who voted in the affirmative today will speak at the 2024 GOP Convention.
Gavin Newsom is recalled as California governor in 2021.
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Newsom survived the Sep 14, 2021 recall: No 7,944,092 (61.9%), Yes 4,894,473 (38.1%) (California Secretary of State, Statement of Vote summary). Outcome source
this is my biggest prediction for 2021: Gavin Newsom, the consummate insider, will be recalled.
Trump will sign the COVID relief/omnibus bill on the afternoon of Dec 25, 2020
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:H.R. 133 (Pub. L. 116-260) was approved Dec 27, 2020, not Dec 25. Outcome source
Prediction: The president will, as he would see it, bestow a Christmas gift on his humble if often ungrateful subjects, by (having made clear his objections to this inferior product of the swamp) signing the COVID relief and omnibus spending legislation this afternoon.
Republicans lose the Jan 5, 2021 Georgia Senate runoffs.
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Ossoff beat Perdue 50.61% to 49.39%, and Warnock beat Loeffler 51.04% to 48.96% (Georgia Secretary of State). Outcome source
Republicans will lose in Georgia because they don't actually care about the will of their voters
Biden will restore Palestinian funding (funding half only)
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Apr 7, 2021: State Dept: 'we plan to restart U.S. economic, development, and humanitarian assistance for the Palestinian people' ($235M). Outcome source
Biden will restore the funding after the PA provides some sort of rhetorical fig leaf
Biden wins Arizona
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Biden 1,672,143 (49.36%) to Trump 1,661,686 (49.06%). Outcome source
[Saagar:] arizona which i'm also giving to biden for the same reason | [Krystal:] i think arizona is far enough along the realignment track for dems to pick it off this year
If Biden wins: winter case spike that wanes by January (condition met)
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Cases spiked and peaked Jan 11, 2021, then fell (NYT covid-19-data rolling averages, cases_avg). Outcome source
the cases will spike this winter, as they are doing. ... This will begin to wane by January.
If Biden wins: winter deaths well below the Mar/Apr 2020 rate
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Deaths 7-day average peaked at 3,342 on Jan 26, 2021, vs 2,222 on Apr 17, 2020: higher, not lower (NYT covid-19-data, deaths_avg). Outcome source
The deaths will follow, but at not nearly the rate of March/April.
If Biden wins: Biden declares a mask mandate
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:EO 13991 (Jan 20, 2021) required masks on federal property only, which is not a mandate. Outcome source
Biden will then declare a mask mandate, constitutional or no.
If Trump loses, he will not concede graciously
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Trump lost (FEC 2020) and never conceded; AP reported he 'made clear he would not concede' and refused to congratulate the winner. Outcome source
i think trump losing and then saying well we fought the good fight but the best man won and uh i'm telling my staff to graciously allowed biden to no he's never going to do that
Sanders wins the Massachusetts primary
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Biden 33.51% to Sanders 26.66%. Outcome source
Massachusetts I think Bernie pulls off the win there ... I think he will pull that off tonight yeah I think that's right
Biden wins Virginia and North Carolina
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:VA: Biden 53.30% to Sanders 23.15%. NC: Biden 42.95% to Sanders 24.22%. Outcome source
Virginia ... yeah that's one of those states where data for progress in particular really saw him shoot up ... yeah I think those are both states were the consolidation of older african-americans and suburban voters around Biden is gonna be enough to put him over the top
Biden will not be the Democratic moderate standard-bearer or nominee in 2020
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Biden won the 2020 Democratic nomination and the presidency; the FEC's official results list Joseph R. Biden as the Democratic (DEM) candidate. Outcome source
So for you moderates, there will either be Bloomberg, Mayor Pete or Klobuchar, you need to pick one at this point. It's not going to be Biden.
TIME names 'The Diplomat' (the impeachment-inquiry diplomats) 2019 Person of the Year.
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:TIME named Greta Thunberg its 2019 Person of the Year on Dec 11, 2019 (TIME). Outcome source
My prediction for @TIME 2019 Person of the Year - The Diplomat
Trump wins the 2020 presidential election
Correct 0 · Wrong 2 · Partial 0
What happened:Biden won 306 electoral votes to Trump's 232. Outcome source
You have to listen this time because he is going to win the 2020 election.
it's going to end up with the re-election of Donald Trump.
If a general election is called, Johnson wins big
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Condition met: early general election held Dec 12, 2019. Conservatives won 365 of 650 seats (+48), 43.6% of the vote, an 80-seat majority. Outcome source
If this farce goes to the country, I predict a big win for Boris.
Trump wins the 2020 election.
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Biden won 306-232 (FEC official results). Outcome source
Take note America This is why Trump will win in 2020
Kamala Harris wins the 2020 Democratic nomination.
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Harris withdrew Dec 3, 2019; Biden was the 2020 Democratic nominee (FEC official results). Outcome source
Here's my prediction DNC Cheats, steals it from Bernie with underhanded tactics, Kamala Harris wins dem nomination.
The shutdown will end by the end of the week of Jan 9, 2019
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:The shutdown ended with H.J. Res. 28 (Pub. L. 116-5), approved Jan 25, 2019. Outcome source
Prediction: The government will be open by the end of the week, as Mitch McConnell "bows to the wishes of his colleagues and to political reality" and cuts a deal with Pelosi-- and quietly takes great delight in throwing Trump under the bus.
The Dec 2018 funding fight ends with no wall money, Trump claiming victory (no shutdown)
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Trump refused to sign. A lapse in appropriations 'began on December 22, 2018, and ended on January 25, 2019' (OPM). Outcome source
Prediction: 1. McConnell "compromises" to include border security funding but no wall funding; 2. Trump claims victory, says he will find a way to build the wall; 3. Democrats claim they've stopped Trump from building the wall.
May's deal triggers ministerial resignations and she is ousted as PM
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Nov 15, 2018: Raab (Brexit Secretary) and McVey (Work and Pensions) resigned over the deal, along with junior ministers Braverman and Vara. May 24, 2019: May announced she would resign as Conservative leader on Jun 7, 2019. Outcome source
I predict resignations, mayhem & her ousting as PM.
Kemp wins the 2018 Georgia governor race
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Kemp (R) 1,978,408 (50.22%) to Abrams (D) 1,923,685 (48.83%); margin 54,723. Georgia SOS official certified results, Nov 6, 2018 General Election. Outcome source
I know it's close but I think Brian Kemp is going to win that race, he's for governor down there.
Scholten beats Steve King in IA-4, 2018
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Steve King (R) 157,676 vs J. D. Scholten (D) 147,246. Outcome source
(And JD is going to win!)
Ojeda wins WV-3 in 2018
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Carol Miller (R) 98,645 vs Richard Ojeda (D) 76,340 (Clerk, 2018 statistics). Outcome source
Nate’s got this one wrong. @Ojeda4congress is going to win.
Trump wins the 2020 election by a larger margin than in 2016.
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Biden won 306-232 in the Electoral College and 81.3M to 74.2M in the popular vote (FEC official results). Outcome source
When he runs again in 2020, he will win by larger margins.
Jahana Hayes wins CT-5 (nomination and seat) in 2018
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Hayes won the Aug 14 Democratic primary and the general: 142,901 (+8,324 WFP) vs Manny Santos (R) 115,146. Outcome source
I got news though, @JahanaHayes is going to win anyway.
Trump will meet Kim before he sits down with Mueller
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:The Singapore summit was June 12, 2018. Trump never sat for a Mueller interview and gave written answers only (Mueller Report, Vol. II). Outcome source
Prediction: Trump will meet with Kim Jong-un before he meets with Robert Mueller.
Republicans will not pass major legislation without Democratic votes in the 115th Congress (through Jan 3, 2019)
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (H.R. 1): Senate passed it 51-48 on Dec 20, 2017 (roll call 323; every Democrat Nay, McCain not voting); House concurred 224-201 on Dec 20, 2017 (roll call 699; Republicans 224-12, Democrats 0-189). Signed Dec 22, 2017. Outcome source
There's no point pretending that the GOP will pass major legislation on its own. Must either work w/ Dems or do nothing.
Trump is re-elected in 2020
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Biden won 306 electoral votes to Trump's 232 (FEC 2020 presidential results). Outcome source
The hysterical abuse you lot shower on him bears little relation to reality & will win him re-election.
Trump wins Michigan in the Nov 8, 2016 presidential election.
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Trump carried Michigan by 10,704 votes, 47.5% to 47.3% (FEC Federal Elections 2016, certified). Outcome source
I predict Donald Trump will win MI.
Clinton wins; Trump finishes with about 217 electoral votes
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Trump won 304-227. Outcome source
Trump will likely win the second district in Maine. That means he finishes up with 217 electoral votes, slightly better than Romney – he loses North Carolina but wins Ohio and Iowa.
TIME names 'The Hispanic Voter' its 2016 Person of the Year.
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:TIME named Donald Trump its 2016 Person of the Year (announced Dec 7, 2016; TIME). Wrong. Outcome source
Prediction: @TIME 2016 "person of the year ": The Hispanic Voter
If Trump loses in 2020, he won't leave office
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Condition met: Trump lost (Biden 306 EV to 232). Biden was inaugurated Jan 20, 2021, and Trump left office at the end of his term. Outcome source
Once fascists get power, they don't give it up. You've got President Trump for life.
Trump wins the 2016 national popular vote by 5-6 points.
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Trump won the Electoral College 304-227 but lost the national popular vote: Clinton 65,853,514 (48.2%), Trump 62,984,828 (46.1%), a 2.1-point Clinton margin (FEC Federal Elections 2016). Outcome source
I'm sticking with my prediction of a 5-6 point Trump win.
Trump wins the 2016 presidential election
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Trump won 304 electoral votes to Clinton's 227 (FEC, Federal Elections 2016). Outcome source
I've just predicted Trump will win for a long time & I think he will.
Trump carries MI, OH, PA and WI in Nov 2016 (the Rust Belt path)
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Trump carried all four: MI, OH, PA, WI. Outcome source
He doesn’t need Florida. He doesn’t need Colorado or Virginia. Just Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And that will put him over the top. This is how it will happen in November.
Trump wins the 2016 presidency
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Trump won 304-227 in the Electoral College (FEC, Federal Elections 2016). Outcome source
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but as things stand today, I think Trump will win.
Trump does not fire campaign manager Corey Lewandowski (no deadline stated; the campaign is the natural window).
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Trump fired Lewandowski on Jun 20, 2016 (ABC News: 'Donald Trump Fires Campaign Manager Corey Lewandowski'; AP: 'Trump fires his campaign manager in dramatic shake-up'). Outcome source
Spoiler alert: Corey won't be fired bc Donald surrounds himself w/ thugs & yes men. He encourages it. Can only retire Corey thru #NeverTrump
Trump wins the 2016 presidential election in a landslide AND Republicans gain House and Senate seats (one combined call).
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Trump won the Electoral College 304-227 but lost the national popular vote: Clinton 65,853,514 (48.2%), Trump 62,984,828 (46.1%), a 2.1-point Clinton margin (FEC Federal Elections 2016). Republicans lost seats in both chambers: House 247 -> 241, Senate 54 -> 52 (House and Senate party-division tables). Outcome source
Here is my prediction. Not only will Trump win a landslide election in November but he will earn even larger House and Senate Majorities.
Trump wins the 2016 Republican nomination
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Trump was the Republican nominee: the FEC's official 2016 results list Donald J. Trump as the Republican (R) presidential candidate in the general election. Outcome source
After a trip following Trump I was convinced that he will win the nomination for sure and likely the presidency.
Iowa is no longer the first nominating contest in the 2020 presidential cycle.
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Iowa held the first contest of the 2020 cycle: the Democratic and Republican caucuses on Feb 3, 2020 (AP; Reuters calendar of key dates). Outcome source
My prediction: After yet another caucus debacle, Iowa loses 1st in nation status in 2020.
The 2016 Democratic nominee wins in November
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Clinton lost the Electoral College 227-304. Outcome source
Whoever the Democrat is on the ballot come November will win.
The next Montgomery County DA is prosecuting Bill Cosby by January 2016.
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Cosby was charged Dec 30, 2015 by the Montgomery County DA's office; Kevin Steele (DA-elect) announced the charges and was counsel of record, with a preliminary hearing set for Jan 14, 2016 (DA press release; court docket). Outcome source
My prediction about Montco DA race - whoever wins, Castor or Steele - Will Be prosecuting #BillCosby come January 2016.
Ted Cruz finishes first or second in the Feb 1, 2016 Iowa Republican caucuses.
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Cruz won: certified Iowa GOP results, Cruz 51,666, Trump 45,429, Rubio 43,228 (Des Moines Register via USA Today, Feb 3, 2016). Outcome source
Here is a quasi-educated prediction: Ted Cruz finishes 1st or 2nd in Iowa.
After Obama's 2012 win, the Court will not overturn Roe and no more Scalia/Alito-style justices will be added.
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Graded over the horizon of Obama's second term (Jan 2013 to Jan 20, 2017). No Scalia- or Alito-type justice was added in that time: after Scalia died on Feb 13, 2016, Garland's nomination was blocked and the seat was still open when Obama left office, and Roe stood. Dobbs (June 24, 2022) came after the horizon and isn't graded against her. Outcome source
We are not going to have a Supreme Court that will overturn Roe versus Wade. There will be no more Antonin Scalias and Samuel Alitos added to this court.
The ACA will not be repealed.
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Graded over the horizon of Obama's second term (Jan 2013 to Jan 20, 2017). The ACA was not repealed in that time; Obama vetoed the repeal bill H.R. 3762 on Jan 8, 2016. It was also still law after the failed 49-51 Senate repeal vote on July 28, 2017. Outcome source
We`re not going to repeal health reform.
Greece leaves the euro within a year (by ~May 30, 2013)
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Greece did not leave the euro by May 2013 (or since); it stayed in the euro area through the third bailout (Aug 2015) and remains a member. Outcome source
Something has to happen and in the end it does have to be a Greek exit. I'd be astonished if they can go more than two years without leaving. I'd be astonished if they could go even one year.
Obama beats Romney in the 2012 general election (conditional on Romney being nominated; condition met).
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Obama won the 2012 election, 332-206 electoral votes (National Archives, 2012 Electoral College results). Outcome source
Obama is going to beat him like a runaway sister wife
Mitt Romney wins the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Romney was nominated at the 2012 RNC in Tampa on Aug 28, 2012 (National Archives 2012 Electoral College page lists Romney [R] as main opponent). Outcome source
I think he's going to get the nomination
Democrats pick up the Georgia Senate seat (Martin beats Chambliss).
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Chambliss (R) won the Dec 2, 2008 runoff 57.44% to 42.56% (FEC official results). Outcome source
Senate Dem. pick-ups : VA, CO, NM, AK, NC, OR, NH, GA
Democrats net about 31 House seats.
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:House Democrats went from 233 seats (110th Congress) to 257 (111th Congress), a gain of 24 including intervening changes; well short of +31 (Office of the House Historian). Outcome source
House Dem. pick-up : +31
Obama carries North Carolina in 2008.
Correct 1 · Wrong 0 · Partial 0
What happened:Obama won North Carolina 2,142,651 (49.70%) to 2,128,474 (49.38%) (FEC official results). Outcome source
Electoral votes: Obama - 321-217 (Kerry states + CO, NM, IA, VA, NC, OH)
US labor productivity growth falls sharply in 1998 from 1997's pace
Correct 0 · Wrong 1 · Partial 0
What happened:Rose instead. Method: BLS doesn't publish an annual-average value for PRS85006093 in the bls.gov table view, so we averaged the four quarterly INDEX levels of BLS series PRS85006093 (nonfarm business labor productivity, index 2017=100; pulled from data.bls.gov on Oct 21, 2026, 1:19:50 PM ET) for each year, then computed the year-over-year percent change. Annual index: 1996 64.265, 1997 65.504, 1998 67.697. Growth was +1.93% in 1997 and +3.35% in 1998. Baseline: 1997 annual growth. 1998 shows acceleration, not a sharp drop. Cross-check only, not used to compute the result: PRS85006092 (percent change from previous quarter, annualized) for 1998 is 3.8, 2.0, 5.5, 3.1. Outcome source
Productivity will drop sharply this year. ... Last year will prove to have been a blip, just like 1992.